6 or 7 carries for Quizz, 2 or 3 for Snelling?
I could see a ratio of 3:2, 3 carries for Quizz, 2 for Snelling. But I don't see Quizz getting 2 or 3 times as many if Snelling is also healthy. Because I think most people don't perceive that there is a lot of difference between Quizz and Snelling as far as third down backs go. They are about equal. Snelling is a very good receiver, and many think Quizz is/will be the same. And both are roughly even in terms of pass protection, although Snelling is the more experienced of the pair, therefore that makes him slightly better.
Point being that in these 3rd down situations where Turner is likely to be off the field, you have the choice between Quizz or Snelling, and no real significant advantage for either. Sure, you could make the argument that Quizz beign a bit more explosive and having more potential on screens could mean that he gets the nod. But why then would that translate to 2 or 3 times more carries
? And so if you're in a situation where they play roughly the same amount of 3rd down snaps, then it would be the case that when Snelling was in the game, the team overwhelmingly passes the ball as opposed to Quizz, where there is at least a moderate threat of running.
I just don't see a lot of cause (besides injury) why Quizz would get a lot more work than Snelling would.
I don't buy the idea that Turner's workload is going to be dramatically reduced. Last year, he averaged 18.8 carries per game. If he averaged 16 per game this year, that would be a 15% reduction. That seems feasible. But I don't see it dropping a lot more than that.
For Quizz to hit that 6-8 carry benchmark, I think it would likely require Turner to get 10-12 carries per game. And I don't think Turner can be effective with that limited a workload. In 59 career games with the Falcons, Turner has gotten 12 or less carries in 7 games, or 11% of the time. If Turner gets only 12 carries, then he's going to have 40-50 yards. Is that enough for a coaching staff that stresses balance so much? Unless Quizz and Snelling are combining to give the team another 70+ yards per game, that is not going to cut it for them.
Last year, Turner averaged 6.6 carries per game just in the 1st quarter. Quizz averaged 0.9 carries in the 1st quarter, and Snelling averaged 0.4. And so you understand that idea of balance, Matt Ryan is averaging 7.9 dropbacks in the 1st quarter. Basically, you have an 8:8 run/pass balance in the 1st quarter. Now compare that to the Saints, who we can bet are heavily skewed towards pass. And it seems they are. Brees averages 9.1 dropbacks per game in the 1st quarter. Ingram, Sproles, Ivory and Thomas combine for an average of 5.5 1st quarter carries.
Does anybody really think that will be the Falcons "new" offense? Maybe Turner only gets an average of 4 1st quarter carries. Where are the remainder going? Ryan? Quizz? Snelling? Probably a combination of all 3.
I just don't think this coaching staff is going to be content with at halftime, Turner has some stat lines where he only has 6 carries for 25 yards. And as I've said 214 times before, if that is going to be the case, then why is he making so much money? You don't pay someone $7.5 million to give you 6-8 first half carries. If you're going to pay someone that much, then they should be getting 10-15 1st half carries. And you'd hope with that workload, he can give you 45-70 yards. Personally, I don't think Turner is capable of that sort of production anymore, but we'll see.
If he's getting somewhere around only 15 carries per game this year, then he better be averaging close to 75 yards to make his salary worthwhile.