Mike Smith sees lots of Falcons in Chiefs

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Re: Mike Smith sees lots of Falcons in Chiefs

Postby Cyril » Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:18 am

"Pudge Wrote"

That isn't what I said at all. It's an antiquated way of trying to compare players.

Only counting one year sure; but the guy who consistently is scoring Tds, and consistently getting more receiving yards
usually does so for a reason.

"Pudge Wrote"
If you think Barack Obama is a socialist Muslim who is trying to destroy America, then you should have some evidence to support that. If you don't then you are no more credible than that crazy homeless person on the corner shouting obscenities at passerbys.

And our debates does not have to be I'm smart and your ignorant; or vice versa; in the above quote I believe I could give a good case that
Obama tends to like socialism; but beyond that most people don't realize when the economy hits a certain cycle (and it does have cycles just
like the post season, preseason; regular season; ect, ) There's not a hell of a lot people can really do. This cycle is just a bigger cycle and will be a longer one but most don't study economics and since they haven't seen this before don't know what can really happen!!

Sorry, just thought I'd throw that in. (:
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Re: Mike Smith sees lots of Falcons in Chiefs

Postby Pudge » Thu Jul 26, 2012 12:18 pm

Cyril wrote:
Pudge wrote:That isn't what I said at all. It's an antiquated way of trying to compare players.

Only counting one year sure; but the guy who consistently is scoring Tds, and consistently getting more receiving yards
usually does so for a reason.

I'm not trying to say that Jenkins is a better player than Jones. I'm not trying to say that Jenkins 2010 will be better than any year that Jones produces from this point on. In 2012, I think Jones is going to really show that everything he does from now until 2020 is going to blow any/everything that Jenkins did from 2004-10 out of the water.

But the argument was made during last season and after it that Julio Jones' addition to the offense was huge. And that perception is largely based off "fantasy numbers" where his catches, yards, and touchdowns pop out to all because in fantasy football, the more yards, catches, and touchdowns you have, the better your team. But in "reality," that is not always the case. Generally speaking, it is the case. But not always.

And in the case of Jenkins vs. Jones measuring the last two years, I think it's a prime example of the exception rather than the rule.

I do think Jones by and large was better than Jenkins. But when people look at the numbers, the perception is that Jones was way better than Jenkins, and I don't think that's the case at all. The perception seems to be that if Jenkins was a 5 out of 10 in 2010, then Jones was an 8 out of 10. But IMO, if Jenks was a 5 in 2010, then Jones was a 6 in 2011.

People say, look at Matt Ryan's production, that's evidence for why Jones was much better. And if you're looking at Matt Ryan's production and coming to that conclusion, then you're not paying enough attention.

Ryan's TD rate was the highest it's ever been at 5.1%. But look at 2009 and 2010, where it was 4.9%, thus 5.1% isn't a significant improvement. Statistically speaking, they are pretty much the same. Look at his INT rate, 2.1%. Well his career INT rate prior to 2011 was 2.3%, again not a significant change.

You look at his YPA, and you do indeed see a significant change, jumping from 6.5 to 7.4. But the interesting thing about that is that in the 3.75 games (15 quarters) where Jones did not play last year, Ryan's YPA was 7.43. In the other 12.25 games, it was 7.36. Again, not a significant difference. But the conclusion to draw is that Ryan's uptick in YPA has less to do with Jones specifically, as it does with the overall offense or Ryan himself.

Again, I think the problem stems from people only look at the best of Jones, and comparing only that to what Jenkins did the year before. And the problem with that is you're only looking at a third of the picture. You're not taking the whole thing into account.

The Seahawks, 2nd Bucs, and Jaguars games were great games by Jones. I think the Colts game you could also say he was very good. I don't think he was as impactful as other guys on the team that day, but his big plays certainly did provide a lot. and in the 2nd Saints game, he was pretty solid. Other than Matt Ryan, he was really the only other offensive player to carry his own weight. In those 5 games, I would say Jones added value to this team/offense. 4 of those were wins, 1 loss.

In the 1st Bucs game, while he put up great 4th quarter numbers, he was absolutely invisible thru the first 3 quarters when the Falcons needed him to step up. And while he put up huge numbers in the 4th, and made a couple of big plays, the Falcons still lost that game. Now I do realize that was his 2nd NFL game, so he has a very valid excuse for not being able to step up earlier in that game. But if you're making a base comparison, then the fact that it was his 2nd NFL game doesn't really matter. The 2nd Carolina game was the same, where he was horrible for 3 quarters, then showed up in the 4th to make 2 big plays. Those are 2 prime examples of games where his box score numbers look great, but as far as the overall eyeball test, he wasn't nearly as good as his numbers suggested. He was much closer to average overall IMO.

And then for the other 9 games of the season, 3 of which he didn't play in (so obviously added nothing in them), the other 6 he combined for 14 catches for 193 yards and 0 TDs. And I think in most of those games, Jenkins would have given us a bit more than that.

Now, I still maintain that the Falcons should have either kept Jenkins from the get-go to play alongside Jones, or when they cut him, find a comparable player to fill that same niche. And had they done that, then IMO they would have gotten the production from Jenkins or his analog on the back-end, i.e. the 9 or so games that Jones really didn't do anything, and still potentially gotten what they did get out of Jones on the front-end, in the 5 or so games where he was very good. So that instances like the 1st Bucs game, where Jones was still getting his feet wet, you could have run the offense through Jenkins/his analog.

And I still believe that until the Falcons find another outside WR with Jenkins skill level or greater, their offense will never reach its full potential even if Jones becomes the player that everybody believes he is capable of becoming.
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