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 Post subject: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 8:56 pm 
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okay, now, do you sit him against a Minn team that may not have AP, or do you rush him back so he can pull a Turner?

I'm snakebit. I say let him sit this week, give him limited reps in Houston and then turn him loose on Carolina.

thoughts?

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:32 pm 
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My thought process is always if the guy is 90% or more, then he should play. Maybe not 60 snaps, but if the Falcons plan to play him 20-30 snaps this week, vs. Houston, and bring him along slowly, then it should be fine.

I think the reality is that Jones hammy is never going to be "healthy," unless we decide to sit him out another 3-4 weeks. I don't think that's really an option, so just play him if the docs clar him.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 11:21 pm 
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It's a hammy. He will likely be week to week for the rest of the season. Hammies take a while to fully heal, and you never know when they're going to act up. He could be absolutely fine this game, but re-injure it next game or the game after.


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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:11 am 
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Something you gusy may not realze, but accoridng to the post game radio show it was not the same hamstring as the first injury. He was jumping around and moving about pretty good on the sidelines trying to make a case to go back in in the TN game so they may be exercising extreme caution with him. Of course, the red herring irony--IMO--is that we have lost more games with him in them than with him out. I still think we are a better team with Julio on the field. He's a heck of a match up problem for DCs.

BTW, regarding the post game show, Alge Crumpler is so much better than Jeff Van Note it isn't even funny. Van Note dealt in the tiredest cliches in the book and left so much saliva on the org's genitalia you couldn't get any real information or enlightenment. Does Alge do color on the live broadcasts of the game itself?

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 3:43 pm 
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I'm not sure we are a better team with Julio on the field. And the theory is based on the idea that Julio may not really know the playbook that well, and thus the Falcons have to "dumb down" their offense to accommodate him. It's perhaps why they don't spread the field as much seemingly when Jones is in the lineup, seemingly loving those 2 TE/3 TE sets when he's on the field rather than the 3 or 4 wide we seem to use quite a bit when its Douglas starting. And it's those 3 and 4 WR sets that seems to be when Ryan is at his best and the offense is moving the ball.

Now, I'm not completely sold on this theory of mine. But it's definitely something worth paying attention to for the rest of the year.

The hardest aspect of transitioning into the league for WRs is widely believed to be the mental part of the game, reading coverages, adjusting your own routes, etc. And with the shortened off-season, it has made a much higher learning curve for Julio. I don't think it's his fault by any means. But I just think that when he's in the lineup, it might be that the Falcons do less of the "good things" offensively when they are trying to challenge defenses which I think requires "smart" wideouts.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 2:01 am 
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Pudge wrote:
I'm not sure we are a better team with Julio on the field. And the theory is based on the idea that Julio may not really know the playbook that well, and thus the Falcons have to "dumb down" their offense to accommodate him.



Julio has 3 100+ yard games in his short time. Doesn't make the Falcon's a better team? :roll: He might not know all the plays but his speed and presence makes defenses think twice and all he needs is an open space to make defenders pay.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2011 11:20 pm 
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thescout wrote:
He might not know all the plays but his speed and presence makes defenses think twice and all he needs is an open space to make defenders pay.

Not necessarily. Because if Julio is getting a bunch of reps when Michael Palmer and Reggie Kelly are essentially the No. 4 and No. 5 options in the passing game, he's not really opening up things for them. But if the Falcons did a better job of making it so that instead Douglas and Weems are the 4th and 5th options in the passing game, his presence on the outside could open things up.

All things being equal, Julio should definitely make our offense better because unlike all of our receivers not named Sharod and Anthony, he can beat man coverage fairly consistently. But the problem is that when the Falcons go to their conservative Mularkey -style offense that relies on its individual receivers beating man coverage, they may not be as good offensively compared to when they tend to spread the field, go with lesser wideouts like HD and Weems and instead often rely on route combos to open up opportunties for those guys.

Just saying it's probably not a coincidence that Harry Douglas has had 4 of his 7 best games (based on yardage) this year in the games that Jones has altogether missed or missed the majority of. And while no one is going to contend that Douglas is as good a player as Jones is, but it didn't look like the Falcons ability to move the ball and Ryan to pass successfully in those games (Carolina, Detroit, New Orleans, and Tennessee) didn't seem like it was diminished. Also the same applies to Weems having the 3rd and 4th best games of his career the past two weeks.

So it begs the question that why don't Weems and Douglas get involved in the offense when Jones is in the lineup. In those 3 games Jones has missed plus the 2nd half of the Saints game, Douglas was targeted a combined 28 times, an average of about 8 targets per game. Jones has been targeted 51 times in his 6.5 appearances, an average of 7.8 targets per game. In the 6.5 games Jones has played in, Douglas has been targeted 19 times, or 2.9 per game.

Btw, Douglas has caught 60.7% of his 28 targets in games where Jones has missed. Jones has caught 58.8% of his 51 targets in the other games.

Not to mention, Ryan posted some of his best ESPN QBRs of the season in the games Jones missed.

Again, I'm aware that logic dictates that because Jones is a better player, thus the offense would be better with him in the lineup. But there seems to be substantial evidence to suggest that there is no dropoff when he is not in the lineup. So how do we explain? Just a trick of statistics? Or is there something to it? I think there is something to it, because it also seems to meet the eyeball test that the Falcons haven't really been hurt that much over the last month when Jones has been on the sidelines. And if there is something to it, I'm betting it's because the Falcons play design is slightly different (possibly better) when Jones is out of the lineup, which offsets the gulf in ability that is clearly there between him and Douglas.

Again, I'm not completely sold on this little theory of mine, just throwing it out there for consideration.

:idea:

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:05 am 
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I think Ryan has always taken a long time to trust a receiver.....He's just beginning to trust Douglas, and your theory is a fine one.....

I think next year Julio plays big and Rodgers plays bigger? Do they have something against Rodgers ? (I know they don't) but its
passed time they trust him as much as Turner..... One day our identity may be Balanced!!

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 9:28 am 
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[quote="Cyril"]I think Ryan has always taken a long time to trust a receiver.....He's just beginning to trust Douglas, and your theory is a fine one.....

I think next year Julio plays big and Rodgers plays bigger? [quote]


I think Cyril is on to something here. I noticed this sunday, but I had to go home and see it for myself.

On that Palmer TD, we had Julio WIDE OPEN. He had his back to the nearest defender which was clearly too far away to make a play. He wasnt waving his arms, but they were outstretched and waiting.

After the snap, Ryan takes 3 drops and NEVER turns his head to the right to see Julio. If you have it on tape, I implore you to watch this play.

Now, he forces a tight one to Palmer who is covered. If ( I know, I know) Ryan gets picked off there, I think the game turns out badly. At that time we had 14 unanswered points from the Vikequeens. 6 minutes left.

Ryan never even looked at Julio! In the RED ZONE!

So, I think Cyril is right. The short season and his injuries haven't 'bonded' Ryan to him yet. Which is maddening because we spent so much to get him..

Hopefully next year they get on the same page.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:50 am 
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Just another indication Ryan isn't seeing the whole field when using his receivers. If he is to become an elite QB he needs to read his progressions better. QBs like Brees,Manning,Brady,Rodgers see the whole field and don't lock onto one receiver. I don't know if that's QB coaching or Ryan himself but the better defenses know this and make it more difficult to play against.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:02 pm 
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I think that you guys are REALLY reaching. What was the result of the play? Oh yeah... TOUCHDOWN. Perhaps Matt didn't look right because he saw that Palmer was there. Obviously, the play was a touchdown. If he had looked right, it might have been an easier touchdown, but I don't think for a second that Matt doesn't trust Julio. If anything, I think Matt wants to get rid of the ball quickly, so if he sees an opening on his first or second read, he's going to take that rather than checking his 3rd, 4th, and 5th reads before coming back to his first or second read. Matt completed 80% of his passes on Sunday. If he had completed 50% because he was forcing balls to receivers that were not open instead of throwing to Julio, then I'd buy your argument. But he completed 80%.


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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:10 pm 
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thescout wrote:
Just another indication Ryan isn't seeing the whole field when using his receivers. If he is to become an elite QB he needs to read his progressions better. QBs like Brees,Manning,Brady,Rodgers see the whole field and don't lock onto one receiver. I don't know if that's QB coaching or Ryan himself but the better defenses know this and make it more difficult to play against.

I don't think that's necessarily true scout. I think on that play in particular (and I should note I have yet to rewatch the game), Palmer was lined up in a bunch formation, and the design of the play was to have the other receivers open up the underneath for him. There was a finite amount of time in which the defenders would be covering the other receivers in the back or middle of the endzone before they could get to Palmer, thus why it required Ryan to get rid of the ball so quickly.

To me, Ryan did exactly what he was supposed to do. If the defense had reacted differently to the coverage, then maybe his next progression is to scan right for Jones. But so much of who gets the ball is determined by pre-snap reads, and I think Ryan made the right one in that if the defense reacts to Gonzo and whoever was the other WR, it's going to leave Palmer wide open for a quick six. He has to make that read at the outset of the play, because that window is only going to be open for a few seconds before the defense reacts.

IMO, my recollection of that play is good play design and good execution of that play design.

I don't think Ryan's field vision is significantly less than those others you mentioned. Sure, he has a tendency to lock onto certain receivers, but I think much of that comes from the scheme. Don't think the Falcons do a great job of using one receiver's routes to complement another receiver's routes, thus opening up opportunities for each other, something I think teams like Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans do a lot of. We tend to rely more on our receivers getting open on their own, and because Gonzo & Roddy are the only ones that have done that with great regularity, those are the guys that Ryan tends to lock onto.

The difference between Ryan and those QBs IMO is that he's not as good fitting the tighter windows particularly down the field as they are, and unlike Brees and Rodgers, he's not as comfortable or as good extending the play with his legs. But Brady is the same way, so I don't think that's a huge negative particularly if you can beef up the middle of the O-line.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:20 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
I think that you guys are REALLY reaching. What was the result of the play? Oh yeah... TOUCHDOWN. Perhaps Matt didn't look right because he saw that Palmer was there. Obviously, the play was a touchdown. If he had looked right, it might have been an easier touchdown, but I don't think for a second that Matt doesn't trust Julio. If anything, I think Matt wants to get rid of the ball quickly, so if he sees an opening on his first or second read, he's going to take that rather than checking his 3rd, 4th, and 5th reads before coming back to his first or second read. Matt completed 80% of his passes on Sunday. If he had completed 50% because he was forcing balls to receivers that were not open instead of throwing to Julio, then I'd buy your argument. But he completed 80%.

Please go watch the tape...

sure, he makes the TD forced throw and he doesn't 'need' to go through his progressions...

Of course, he gets picked off there and we lose, and I promise you everyone from the AJC to almost all of us would be saying WTF? Because I saw it twice, once live and once on tape and having an open receiver undefended in the end zone where we have been struggling is NOT going to be something people make excuses for. Just because he squeezed in in doesnt mean we should overlook that Jones wasn't even on Ryan's radar.

Again: go look at the tape. The guy we spent all our picks for was standing,alone in the end zone in a game where we had 14 unasnwered points by a rookie on an awful team.

Now, Im not saying Ryan sucks. In fact, he has been extraordinary in dispersing the ball around. But, there really is no excuse for Ryan's 'quick release'. Not in the end zone. Ryan had the time to go through his progressions: he just didnt even look at his right side. He had time, and Jones was wide open.

This tells me something. They are using Jones as a decoy, and even when the D doesnt 'bite' Ryan is not going to 'look' for the play unless his first 2 ( Gonzo, Roddy) reads are tied up, and even then he is probably going to throw it to someone he is more familiar with. At least in the red zone, and that's where we have been struggling, outside of 3rd qtr meltdowns.

Im not saying this is a weakness, or will even be a problem for us, but I think it's Ryan's rapport hasn't gelled with Jones yet. As time goes by and Ryan feels he can trust him, Jones will get the 2nd read. He dropped one yesterday and I think maybe Ryan had that in mind.

just sayin

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:28 pm 
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I still think that you're reaching. As Pudge said, the play was designed as a bunch formation. The other receivers were going deep, and Palmer was going short. The play was designed to get Palmer the ball.

Regarding Jones, I really REALLY doubt that Ryan is going to lose confidence in a receiver because he dropped a pass. Roddy leads the league in dropped passes. If Ryan has lost confidence in anyone, it should be Roddy, but that's obviously not the case. Again, I think you're reaching for an answer to a question that I've answered repeatedly. Mularkey's scheme = two receiving targets. If you're not one of those guys, then you're going to catch 2 or 3 at most. If Smith decides that it is a no-huddle kind of day, then you have a much better shot at being involved.


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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:51 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
I still think that you're reaching. As Pudge said, the play was designed as a bunch formation. The other receivers were going deep, and Palmer was going short. The play was designed to get Palmer the ball.

Regarding Jones, I really REALLY doubt that Ryan is going to lose confidence in a receiver because he dropped a pass. Roddy leads the league in dropped passes. If Ryan has lost confidence in anyone, it should be Roddy, but that's obviously not the case. Again, I think you're reaching for an answer to a question that I've answered repeatedly. Mularkey's scheme = two receiving targets. If you're not one of those guys, then you're going to catch 2 or 3 at most. If Smith decides that it is a no-huddle kind of day, then you have a much better shot at being involved.



RAP, I get what your saying. And, it may be so that Mularkey's 'scheme' does not use 4wr formations and it's probably true also that the cumulative effect on Ryan's development has been to get the ball out quickly and that he is only doing what he is told.

And, in reflection, I also understand that the player is what is driving this idea I have:meaning if it was Weems or Douglas standing there open in the end zone maybe I would not even have noticed it so much.

But when you see the 'shiny hood ornament' standing alone in the end zone while your watching the QB 'squeeze' in a TD throw into coverage it makes me squirm a little.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-high ... -TD-strike

Now lets be 'fair'. Clearly: Jones is more 'open', Ryan has plenty of time ( operating in the shotgun ) he doesnt even 'look' to his right. Is it a bunch formation? Yep. But IMO Mularkey has little to nothing to do with whether Ryan even turns his head to 'see' if the 3rd read is open.

Again, we dont have the luxury of making mistakes. IMO, this was a mistake, one that could have been just as costly as some of the 4th down decisions the coaching staff has made. Like I said, if that gets picked off I believe we lose. And right then and there our playoffs are done. It didn't, and that's because Ryan hot footed it in there, but let's not just ignore the open 'superstar' and say it's Mularkey's fault. This is a very different conversation today if Palmer and Ryan had not connected. I realize they did, but it's hard to overlook when we have had such problems in the red zone.

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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:40 pm 
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I get it. I'm also a bit miffed that we're not getting Jones involved. I understand the frustration with him having steps on people, or being open, and we're not getting him the ball. But again, he's down on the list. Jones was probably the 4th read on that play. With our offensive line, I don't know how often Ryan is going to get to his 4th read.

You've been around and heard all of my crazy crap. You know that I believe that we would have been better served to beef up the offensive line rather than draft Jones. The offensive line factors into how Ryan approaches every play. He has to know that they cannot hold up for a 7 step drop. As such, if Ryan sees any kind of opening on one of his first 3 reads, he's going to take the shot.


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 Post subject: Re: JJ returns to practice tommorrow
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:43 pm 
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Thanks for the highlight clip. My lord, the Vikings played some horrible defense on that play.

I think you guys might be arguing two different things.

I get what you're saying fun gus about Ryan not seeing Jones. the corner is lined up several yards off Ryan, and if he looks over there, then it's an easy pitch and catch for an easier six points. I don't think it was wrong of Ryan to go to Palmer where the bunch formation was because based on how the Vikings lined up, it was likely someone was going to be open.

You could probably argue that if Ryan's rapport with Jones was stronger, he would have looked first to his side of the field, seen that coverage and made that throw. He made a harder throw than he probably had to make. That is not a reflection on poor play calling on Mularkey's part, or bad field vision on Ryan's part, just that Ryan had a better option that he did not take for whatever reason. And it probably does have something to do with the lack of rapport between Ryan and Jones. Had that been Roddy instead, you'd probably bet that he would have gotten the ball there.

I'm sure when they go back and watch the tape, they will see what they missed and hopefully learn from it.

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