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 Post subject: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 2:18 pm 
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....and the first two were gimmee's.......

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After months of predictions, most football fans probably saw their mock drafts fall apart early on in the 2015 NFL Draft.

But if your projections didn't end up being 100-percent accurate, don't fret, because even the experts ended up getting it wrong most of the time.

With the final picks in, we decided to take a look at how accurate four NFL experts — Todd McShay, Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock and Peter King — were in their final mock drafts. McShay led the way by correctly predicting nine selections, while King finished behind the pack with four.

Notably, Kiper was the only one of the group to accurately guess that the Giants would take Ereck Flowers with the No. 9 pick.

Here's how the experts did:

TODD MCSHAY: 9/32
Correctly predicted:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.

2. Tennesse Titans
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

7. Chicago Bears
WR Kevin White, West Virginia

11. Minnesota Vikings
CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State

12. Cleveland Browns
DT Danny Shelton, Washington

13. New Orleans Saints
T Andrus Peat, Stanford

14. Miami Dolphins
WR DeVante Parker, Louisville

16. Houston Texans
CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest

24. Arizona Cardinals
T D.J. Humphries, Florida


MIKE MAYOCK: 6/32
Correctly predicted:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.

2. Tennesse Titans
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
DE Dante Fowler Jr., Florida

4. Oakland Raiders
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

12. Cleveland Browns
NT Danny Shelton, Washington

24. Arizona Cardinals
OT D.J. Humphries, Florida


MEL KIPER: 6/32
Correctly predicted:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.

2. Tennesse Titans
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

4. Oakland Raiders
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

9. New York Giants
OG Ereck Flowers, Miami

11. Minnesota Vikings
CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State.

12. Cleveland Browns
NT Danny Shelton, Washington


PETER KING: 4/32
Correctly predicted:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Jameis Winston, Florida St.

2. Tennesse Titans
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon

11. Minnesota Vikings
CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State

12. Cleveland Browns
DT Danny Shelton, Washington


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 Post subject: Re: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 9:55 pm 
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I knew their records were bad, I didn't realize they were this bad.... 4 out of 32 lol

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 Post subject: Re: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 8:00 am 
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DaveWaz wrote:
I knew their records were bad, I didn't realize they were this bad.... 4 out of 32 lol


And the first two were no brainers. So King actually went 2 for 30. Mel Kiper, "the draft guru" himself gord 4-30. To quote Charles Barkley - "that's turrible".


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 Post subject: Re: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 2:44 pm 
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Purveyor of Truth & Justice
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I hope this wasn't a revelation to anyone. Mock drafts are notoriously inaccurate, yet sooooooo many fans obsess over them. It's literally like obsessing over the report you read in the Farmer's Almanac about what the weather is going to be like 9 months from now. It's a complete shot in the dark.

The most accurate mock draft this year got 13 out of 32 picks right. Last year, it was 8. The very best still was wrong 60% of the time.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/scoring/mockdrafts.shtml

The difference between getting 13, 8 and 4 right really is just dumb luck. The guy who has been consistently the most accurate is some guy that writes for a C-list newspaper in Nowhereville, PA (80 miles north of Philly). Do you think he's more "plugged in" than these other guys?

Mock drafts are fun to look at and do, but they should always be taken with a grain of salt...or considerably less.

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 Post subject: Re: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 3:57 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
I hope this wasn't a revelation to anyone. Mock drafts are notoriously inaccurate, yet sooooooo many fans obsess over them. It's literally like obsessing over the report you read in the Farmer's Almanac about what the weather is going to be like 9 months from now. It's a complete shot in the dark.

The most accurate mock draft this year got 13 out of 32 picks right. Last year, it was 8. The very best still was wrong 60% of the time.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/scoring/mockdrafts.shtml

The difference between getting 13, 8 and 4 right really is just dumb luck. The guy who has been consistently the most accurate is some guy that writes for a C-list newspaper in Nowhereville, PA (80 miles north of Philly). Do you think he's more "plugged in" than these other guys?

Mock drafts are fun to look at and do, but they should always be taken with a grain of salt...or considerably less.


Oh no....I agree Pudge. I was just pointing out that these guys get paid big money for this. You should fill out an application at ESPN and knock Kiper out of there. :P


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 Post subject: Re: Getting paid to be wrong
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 4:58 pm 
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Exactly why I say the difference between us and the "experts" are that they get paid for their opinion and we don't.

If I had to bet money, I'd say that the first target was Dante Fowler. Once TD made the call to Jacksonville and found out what the price for moving up was, he moved to Beasley (who isn't a lot different than Fowler in ability).

I couldn't believe some of the projections that people had for the Falcons.

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