Sorry Pudge it was Not a no brainer, we were 3-12 on third down conversions, those are the only stats that count, not what teams have done against Carolina or Dallas. Like I've said I would have liked to have taken our 25% chance,
but it was not a no brainer.....!! Hell I know I have no brains, maybe that's your problem too......reading too many
stats will do it to you!!
So because we had converted only 25% of our 3rd downs at that point, we should just concede defeat at that point on any possible conversions?
We were down 3 points! The point is Cyril, regardless of what happened earlier in that game, there's no logical reason to think that when you're down 3 points on 4th & 6 with 3 minutes left in the game at midfield, that punting is going to increase your chances of winning.
Let's say you punt the ball, and Koenen boots it 40 yards. So now the Saints have the ball at their own 17. And let's say you get a 3 & out, where the Saints wind up a yard short of the first down and punt on 4th & 1 because in this hypothetical instance, Sean Payton is being conservative for one. So now Thomas Morstead boots it 45 yards down field from the NO 26 to the ATL 29.
So now the Falcons have the ball at their own 29 with 90+ seconds bled off the clock. And I'm supposed to believe that gives the Falcons a better chance of winning.
Since when is a 4th and 6 a makable down????? I need to see proof that the NFL average for a 4th and 6th is 44% as you claim.
I don't know for a fact that it's 44% because I don't have the stats in front of me. That's the number that Advanced NFL Stats said it was, and it's a credible website to me, so I have no reason to doubt it. But on 3rd down with 8-10 yards to go, Matt Ryan has converted on 43% of his pass attempts this year. So to me the notion that a 4th & 6 is converted 44% of the time, seems about on the money.
Now it seems to me that many of the folks that refute the notion that going for it on the 4th down is a no brainer, are probably doing so as a counter to the arguments of RobertAP. I pretty much disagree with every conclusion Rob has drawn about this game in regards to the coaching staff, but as far as the 4th down goes, he's right that it was an obvious blunder.
If you think that it's ambiguous whether or not the Falcons had a better chance of winning in that situation by giving the ball back to Drew Brees vs. letting their franchise QB try and make a play, to me tells me you're out of touch on this particular issue.
I'm not even sure that anybody has presented an argument of what it was an ambiguous call. Because they only converted 25% of their third downs prior to that? So if the game is on the line and it's third down, you're not supposed to go for it? Even if they had gone 0 for 78 on 3rd down attempts prior to that point, when the game is on the line, you go for it! And the game was on the line.
I'm dumbfounded that this thread has made it to the second page because people are arguing that going for it on 4th down wasn't an obvious call.