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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:23 am 
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Cool your jets, Cyril. Robt. AP is a good and respected poster...and will probably be back once this guy who has been using his account here is apprehended and sent back to Milledgeville!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:44 am 
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Heck no, he shouldn't have punted. I still can't believe he did. But I guess I understand his logic in it. The defense had been playing very well all game.

But what I can't understand is how come BVG didn't see that pass coming on that final drive? I saw that from a mile away. Of course he's gonna freggin' throw it, are u kiddin' me? He's got no running game whatsoever :x

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:55 am 
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Robert Wrote:this was a game where we had nothing to lose. Losing the game costs us absolutely nothing.

That's the drivil I was responding to.....
**********************************************************************about having a lot to lose.
I'm just saying and sticking with going for it was not a no brainer!!

We were 3/12 on third down conversions, we'd intercepted two passes in the forth quarter.

Yea we'd done something wrong---they had twice the first downs and twice the third down conversations. Like
I mentioned I wanted to go for it too, but it wasn't a no-brainer......

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:25 am 
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Sorry, Cyril it was a no brainer. The folks that don't realize that are the ones with no brains. :lol:

You're down 3 points with 3 minutes left in the game at midfield on a makeable 4th down and you're going against one of the elite QBs and offenses in the NFL. And you're defense just got gashed on a 90-yard drive. There is no logical reason to think that your odds of winning are higher if you punt the ball in that situation than they would be if you go for it. The article linked to clearly shows that, 23% chance of winning if you go for it, 15% chance of winning if you punt. And if you go for it and make it, your chances of winning are 37%. And you apparently have a 44% chance of converting. Do you think the odds of stopping the Saints at that point are as high as 44%?

Now, obviously Smitty is probably not aware of these percentages. But you have to have a feel for that. Regardless of how well your defense has played in that game, to me is an egregious miscalculation if Smitty's gut feeling was that his below average defense was going to "win" them the game over Matt Ryan, the most clutch QB in the league this season.

Again, had there been another minute left on the clock, a 4th & 9, and/or we had the ball at our own 23 instead, then it's a very different situation and the variables change so that the choice is not so much a no-brainer.

If you're so confident in your defense, why not be confident that you can go for it on 4th, miss it and they'll get the stop preventing the Saints from getting into FG range, which they were not in at that point and would have needed to get another 11-25 yards before Payton would have kicked it?

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:29 am 
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Doh. I had made a reply, but Pudge covered everything I had to say. So... Yay Pudge!

And BnB... I'm never giving the account back! NEVAAAAR!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:18 am 
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Quote:
on a makeable 4th down


Since when is a 4th and 6 a makable down????? I need to see proof that the NFL average for a 4th and 6th is 44% as you claim.

I call BS. That's almost 1 out of every two. Maybe in the Madden world, but not the NFL.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 1:19 pm 
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Well, teams get super conservative late in the game. I guess you've missed my arguments against Brian Van Gorder's conservative late game playcalling. Being conservative against QB's like Rodgers, Brees, and Ryan leads to, "easy," conversions. That's probably why the percentages are so high.

Being aggressive on 4th down is the way to go. It is well documented that teams that go for it on 4th down have a better chance of winning. It is not the NFL, but look at what Oregon has done with 4th downs. They convert like 65% or something crazy like that, and they do it all the time. It's only a matter of time before other teams follow suit.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:21 pm 
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Sorry Pudge it was Not a no brainer, we were 3-12 on third down conversions, those are the only stats that count, not what teams have done against Carolina or Dallas. Like I've said I would have liked to have taken our 25% chance,
but it was not a no brainer.....!! Hell I know I have no brains, maybe that's your problem too......reading too many
stats will do it to you!!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:24 pm 
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Yea I wish I would have thought about the Oregon Ducks sooner. Now that's an analogy that
makes since to everyone!!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:32 pm 
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RobertAP wrote:
Doh. I had made a reply, but Pudge covered everything I had to say. So... Yay Pudge!

And BnB... I'm never giving the account back! NEVAAAAR!!!

:lol: ....how about Robert's body?

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:34 pm 
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Quote:
It is not the NFL, but look at what Oregon has done with 4th downs. They convert like 65% or something crazy like that, and they do it all the time. It's only a matter of time before other teams follow suit.


Big difference between Oregon rolling it up on Toledo and the NFL.
You've been embarrassing yourself for a few days now with how little you know about the NFL game. Coaches quitting and wanting to lose? If Oregon can convert a fourth and 6, we'll the Falcons surely can. :doh:


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:39 pm 
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BnB WROTE: Cool your jets, Cyril. Robt. AP is a good and respected poster...and will probably be back once this guy who has been using his account here is apprehended and sent back to Milledgeville!
**************************************************************************
i'M TRYING,its just all decent conversation gets taken away when our choices are we should fire our coaches,
or the Falcon coaches threw the game? That kind of takes away all civil conversations when someone makes this claim
all over the board..... I guess I'll have to quit posting till next week...... so as to not get thrown out, now the
Ducks are brought up, this isn't fun, right now its to stupid for me, and I'm pretty stupid myself, so I recognize stupid!!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 6:17 pm 
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Cyril wrote:
Sorry Pudge it was Not a no brainer, we were 3-12 on third down conversions, those are the only stats that count, not what teams have done against Carolina or Dallas. Like I've said I would have liked to have taken our 25% chance,
but it was not a no brainer.....!! Hell I know I have no brains, maybe that's your problem too......reading too many
stats will do it to you!!

So because we had converted only 25% of our 3rd downs at that point, we should just concede defeat at that point on any possible conversions?

We were down 3 points! The point is Cyril, regardless of what happened earlier in that game, there's no logical reason to think that when you're down 3 points on 4th & 6 with 3 minutes left in the game at midfield, that punting is going to increase your chances of winning.

Let's say you punt the ball, and Koenen boots it 40 yards. So now the Saints have the ball at their own 17. And let's say you get a 3 & out, where the Saints wind up a yard short of the first down and punt on 4th & 1 because in this hypothetical instance, Sean Payton is being conservative for one. So now Thomas Morstead boots it 45 yards down field from the NO 26 to the ATL 29.

So now the Falcons have the ball at their own 29 with 90+ seconds bled off the clock. And I'm supposed to believe that gives the Falcons a better chance of winning.

AngryJohnny51 wrote:
Since when is a 4th and 6 a makable down????? I need to see proof that the NFL average for a 4th and 6th is 44% as you claim.

I don't know for a fact that it's 44% because I don't have the stats in front of me. That's the number that Advanced NFL Stats said it was, and it's a credible website to me, so I have no reason to doubt it. But on 3rd down with 8-10 yards to go, Matt Ryan has converted on 43% of his pass attempts this year. So to me the notion that a 4th & 6 is converted 44% of the time, seems about on the money.

Now it seems to me that many of the folks that refute the notion that going for it on the 4th down is a no brainer, are probably doing so as a counter to the arguments of RobertAP. I pretty much disagree with every conclusion Rob has drawn about this game in regards to the coaching staff, but as far as the 4th down goes, he's right that it was an obvious blunder.

If you think that it's ambiguous whether or not the Falcons had a better chance of winning in that situation by giving the ball back to Drew Brees vs. letting their franchise QB try and make a play, to me tells me you're out of touch on this particular issue.

I'm not even sure that anybody has presented an argument of what it was an ambiguous call. Because they only converted 25% of their third downs prior to that? So if the game is on the line and it's third down, you're not supposed to go for it? Even if they had gone 0 for 78 on 3rd down attempts prior to that point, when the game is on the line, you go for it! And the game was on the line.

I'm dumbfounded that this thread has made it to the second page because people are arguing that going for it on 4th down wasn't an obvious call.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 6:58 pm 
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"I'm dumbfounded that this thread has made it to the second page because people are arguing that going for it on 4th down wasn't an obvious call."


So....you hate the Jews!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:38 pm 
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Pudge wrote:
The chances the Saints fumble or turn it over in that situation are tiny, and should not sway Smitty in any way about whether he decides to punt.

Have to agree with Pudge on this one :shock: And if we had gone for it and not made it, there was the same (tiny) chance that the Saints would fumble with the ball on our 43 as there was with the ball on their 20.

Taking over on our 43, the Saints wouldn't have been in field goal range and I doubt they would have taken the field position risk of trying a long field goal if they had gotten just 1 first down. So they would have still needed those same 2 first downs to end the game that they needed from their own 20.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:41 pm 
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You really don't even have to get into sophisticated stats to understand the punt was a bad idea.

The Falcons lose if the Saints convert a first down.

If you punt, you have 1 chance to win, and that's to get a 3 and out.
If you go for it, you have 2 ways to win. If you don't make it, just get a 3 and out (if you could do it after a punt you could do it after missing on 4th). Your second way of winning is if you convert.

Two ways to win instead of one. It's pretty much one of the most basic decisions you can make strategy wise. If there were more time on the clock, it's different, but here...it's very clear.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 30, 2010 9:44 pm 
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takeitdown wrote:
You really don't even have to get into sophisticated stats to understand the punt was a bad idea.

The Falcons lose if the Saints convert a first down.

If you punt, you have 1 chance to win, and that's to get a 3 and out.
If you go for it, you have 2 ways to win. If you don't make it, just get a 3 and out (if you could do it after a punt you could do it after missing on 4th). Your second way of winning is if you convert.

Two ways to win instead of one. It's pretty much one of the most basic decisions you can make strategy wise. If there were more time on the clock, it's different, but here...it's very clear.

Exactly my point!


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:00 am 
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takeitdown wrote:
You really don't even have to get into sophisticated stats to understand the punt was a bad idea.

The Falcons lose if the Saints convert a first down.

If you punt, you have 1 chance to win, and that's to get a 3 and out.
If you go for it, you have 2 ways to win. If you don't make it, just get a 3 and out (if you could do it after a punt you could do it after missing on 4th). Your second way of winning is if you convert.

Two ways to win instead of one. It's pretty much one of the most basic decisions you can make strategy wise. If there were more time on the clock, it's different, but here...it's very clear.

Well said. Either way you need a 3 and out. There is the chance you pin them on the 3 yard line on the punt. But, still, you need the three and out. I was for going for it but fans almost always are. Despite our stats and arm chair analysis, I still have faith that the Falcons coaches are better equipped to call a game than we are collectively or individually.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 3:52 am 
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backnblack wrote:
Despite our stats and arm chair analysis, I still have faith that the Falcons coaches are better equipped to call a game than we are collectively or individually.

I agree with that 100%. But considering how many issues coaches have at large in the NFL with these "game management" decisions, it's one of the few times where I'll go out of my way to criticize or question the coaches.

It's just odd with Smitty with how aggressive he's been in the past on 4th downs (esp. Seahawk game) that he would miss this call.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 3:57 am 
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Pudge wrote:
backnblack wrote:
Despite our stats and arm chair analysis, I still have faith that the Falcons coaches are better equipped to call a game than we are collectively or individually.

I agree with that 100%. But considering how many issues coaches have at large in the NFL with these "game management" decisions, it's one of the few times where I'll go out of my way to criticize or question the coaches.

It's just odd with Smitty with how aggressive he's been in the past on 4th downs (esp. Seahawk game) that he would miss this call.

He didn't, "miss it." :wink:


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:02 am 
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RobertAP wrote:
Pudge wrote:
backnblack wrote:
Despite our stats and arm chair analysis, I still have faith that the Falcons coaches are better equipped to call a game than we are collectively or individually.

I agree with that 100%. But considering how many issues coaches have at large in the NFL with these "game management" decisions, it's one of the few times where I'll go out of my way to criticize or question the coaches.

It's just odd with Smitty with how aggressive he's been in the past on 4th downs (esp. Seahawk game) that he would miss this call.

He didn't, "miss it." :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:02 pm 
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Ok Pudge, My first reaction was very disappointed we didn't go for it, and perhaps then it was a "no brainer"
except folks are saying we had to hold them once!! 2 timeouts and the two minute warning, its seems rational
that punting was an option, we could allow a first down and they'd had to get a second first down. I'm just saying maybe
I should go with my first feeling first!!

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:35 pm 
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But the point is Cyril, that even if you hold them whether that's a 3 & out, or a 6 & out, how have you improved your chances of winning at that point?

In the end, all you're really counting on is a HOPE. A hope that Koenen pins them at the 3, a hope that maybe Bush muffs the punt. A hope that you can create a turnover. A hope that Weems gets a big return when you get the stop and get the ball back. None of these are high percentage plays. They are very low percentage plays. And even if you get a stop, you're not likely to improve your field position.

So the fact that a coach can sit there and think he has a better chance of winning with one of these things happen than Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez being able to get 7 stinkin yards?!

Hopefully Smitty at some point owns the mistake and learns from it. But it's without a doubt a mistake.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:48 pm 
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ever had the situation where you had to make an important decision, and your head is telling you one thing, but your gut is telling you something else? and then you made your decision, either head or gut, and it blows up in your face? This is what I think happened. Smitty is sitting there with MM in his headset, and they are figuring out what to do, and his head says 'punt' but his gut says 'dont do it~go for it'. He chose, and it blew up on him. And the thing is, it could have gone either way,so it's a lose-lose-maybe win at that point. BUt definitely he blew it. He knows it.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Falcons Have Punted?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:11 pm 
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Well if you hold them you have a new series of downs.....I was hoping like most coaches Payton
was gonna be running and use up our time out.... I mean I can't say what I don't believe, we had two time outs and a two minute warning....Yes I would have gone for it as I said from the beginning......but I can't say it was so one sided, so
obvious that is was a "no brainer"........If we had held 3 and out we get the ball back and a new series. But that stratigy
didn't work letting you call the other a no brainer.

Again Smith didn't do what I wanted, but I don't see his choice as open and shut as you!!

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