Does it even matter?

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Does it even matter?

Postby Pudge » Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:03 am

In reference to all this talk about free agency on the offensive line?

Although some seem to believe that the Falcons will make at least one major signing, I don't think that's going to happen. And by major signing, I mean the team will give out a signing bonus of at least $5 million.

Right now we are $15.3 million over the cap. But we should save $18.75 million with Vick's signing bonus getting prorated, then with cuts like Cory Hall, Travis Hall, and Jasper's retirement that should save another $6.1 million. If we restructure the contracts of Weiner, Dunn, and Smith it should save us another $3-4 million.

So at that point, I expect we will have up to $13.55 million in cap space at the start of the off-season.

But with the RFAs and EFAs, if we tender them all, it will eat up about $6.4 million. That leaves us with $7.15 million in cap space.

What about our UFAs then? I think a bunch of these guys will be coming back. I think guys like Garza, Feely, Rossum, and maybe Mathis will probably get long term deals. They won't be big contracts, with probably the highest signing bonus awarded to any of them being $750K. But I think guys like Pritchett (or McCrary), Ulmer, Herndon, and Eric Johnson will return as well. Not to mention the team will probably like to bring back Stewart, Carpenter, and/or Beasley as well. But let's say the team only signs the first 8 guys I mentioned and manages to get them all to sign minimum level deals with $25,000 signing bonuses. That's $3.88 million in cap space.

That leaves us with $3.27 million. And from my estimations, we are going to need around $3.5 million to sign our rookies.

Of course we can save a few dollars by pinching some veterans, RFAs, and EFAs here or there, but it's not going to make a huge difference in my mind. Of course, the team could instill a "purge" and instead of restructuring the contracts of Weiner, Dunn, Smith, along with Draft, and Beverly, from my estimations will save the team about $6.4 million if they are all cut, instead of the $3-4 million I had indicated before.

If we cut Weiner, Dunn, and Smith it will save about $4.3 million. But I think the team could potentially do the same with smart restructuring, if not more.

But basically, any FA that receives a $5 million bonus or more will cost the team at least $1.37 million against this year's cap. So when McKay says the team won't be players in the market this year, I sincerely think he's speaking the truth, and that should be taken more literal than most are. If the Falcons do sign other free agents, it will be bargain-basement types, and it may be 2, 3, or 4 of them at most.

So guys like Diem, Wahle, and DeMulling, although all look like good targets are very unlikely to be Falcons next year. Basically saying that if someone is not willing to accept a near minimum-level deal, then he likely won't be a Falcon.
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Doom and Gloom for free agents

Postby thescout » Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:30 pm

The free agent perod starts march 2 and if Pudge is correct it doesn't look to promising to acquire talent in free agency. Since vick signed his big conract if it is true that this year and next is the best time to sign free agents to fill holes then we are in trouble.Teams must build through the draft and use free agency to fill in the rest of the positions.If we base this year's free agency on Pudge's totals then there are a few quesitons I have and how it relates to the draft.A few players stick out in regards to there salary and possible selections for the upcoming draft.Jason Webster has a cap hit of 2.370 million 2005,Todd weiner 4.3 million,Brady Smith 3.075 those are the 3 contracts after you count the cory hall's,Jasper's and the other players that are not starters,that must be looked at to possibly give more manueverability to the draft and free agency to free up money.I am only looking at the draft since I am not sure restructuring Weiner's,Webster's and Smith's contracts will take place befroe march 2.Weiner's contract and Smith's end 2006 and webster 2009.When you enter the draft you get the best impact player but hopefully it will also free up cap space in the future.

Since left guard is the problem for the falcon's would the falcon's draft a player in the 1st or 2nd that can play multiple positions guard and tackle? Logan Mangins is a player that can do that.Nick Kazcur and do that so I wonder when the falcon's draft they consider cap considerations if it is close between 2 players drafted.This is a strong cornerback draft that maybe no deion sander types but do you pass on a position that is hard to find in the 1st or 2nd round,maybe third because of the depth?I would much prefer a left tackle than a right tackle since Vick rolls left more than right (this is in addition to adding a guard ).Adding a corner I am thinking in the 3rd round since it is deep in players like an Eric Green would be economical and be the best strategy.Def end is very hard to find so which position has more depth def end or off tackle/guard? Is Justin Tuck or Matt roth going to be a star player? Those are the 2 most likely on the board and Roth may not even be there to draft since his stock is higher.Does Adam Terry,Barnes,Jammal Brown which one has the potential to be a star?It seems there is more depth at off line then end so if the falcon's set up there draft board I wonder if they would like it to be def end,tackle/guard/corner in order of importance?

Webster,Smith and Weiner's contracts I could see them gone within 2 yrs and the falcon's need to look to replace them probably this draft.What do the falcon's do about free safety? Keion Carpenter can he play next year?There are alot of questions to be asked and I guess will see what Mckay has planned but keep in mind cap room for next year's free agents is important.I think Peerless Price will be gone after next year so that in itself will help out.

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Postby Capologist » Tue Feb 08, 2005 7:47 pm

Honestly, I think we are looking at a smaller scale of last year. With 8 draft picks, free agency doesn't really offer a lot unless it's at a bargain price...

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