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 Post subject: Breakdown of final 4 teams Stats and who will bein SuperBowl
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2006 3:46 am 
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I did some research to try and find patterns of how these teams,the final 4, got there and what common stats all 4 had. I was hoping to find some variables that would mean something in order to hopefully predict reasonably what it takes for your team(the falcons) to be a final 4 team in the future.Here is some interesting info for you:

Total offense
rank
2nd Seattle
5th Denver
22 carolina
16 pittsburgh

Pass offense
13 seattle
18 denver
17 carolina
23 pittsburgh

Run offense

3rd seattle
2nd denver
19 carolina
5th pittsburgh

time of possession

21 seattle
1st denver
11 carolina
8 pittsburgh

total Defense

17 seattle
15 denver
3rd carolina
4th pittsburgh

rush defense
5th seattle
2nd denver
4th carolina
3rd pittsburgh

pass defense
25 seattle
29 denver
9th carolina
16th pittsburgh

Sacks
1st seattle
29 denver
7th carolina
4th pittsburgh

Turovers/differential

7th seattle
2nd denver
3rd carolina
9th pittsburgh


Last but not least run vs pass percentages
how often team ran vs pass

Run/pass
52% 48% seattle
54% 46% denver
52% 48% carolina
59% 41% pittsburgh


Now looking at thsese stats may not mean alot has far as patterns but one thing that sticks out is the run defense.All 4 teams rank in top 5. Other than that you really can't say all were in top 10 in any category except turnover diffential.Sacks by the defense 3 were in top 10 but denver was 29th.

I am going to stick to my stat of pass vs run percentage to predict tomorrows game.

AFC wil be represented by Denver
NFC is a crap shoot Carolina and Seattle are dead even so I can't predict based on this formula don't hold me to it. My gut instinct says Carolina based on the defense ranked 3rd seattle 17th.


One other big factor about all 4 teams. NONE have a SUPERSTAR QB.No Manning,Brady,Vick,Mcnabb.Instead we have Delhomme,Hasselbeck,Plummer and Rothensberger.What does that tell you, you don't have to have a hall of famer to win a super bowl.

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 Post subject: So far the steelers are handing it to Denver
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2006 6:40 pm 
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Well I have to say the steelers are dominating the broncos at halftime 24-3. The pass/run theory may not be the best predictor of who advances but I can tell you it sure works alot of the time in the Super bowl.Pittsburgh looks to be more of a complete team.They have solid lines,a good defense and while there bread and butter is the run they can also pass when needed and another key turnovers ,they make the other team have them and minimize there own.

I hope vick is watching this and more importantly the falcons organziation.You don't need a super star QB to advance in the playoffs.You need a head smart QB that doesn't commit turnovers,and you must have a complete team.No one individual is going to dominate at these levels since they are facing quality defenses.The more we less rely on Vick to make the plays the better off the Falcon's will be just like any sport.Jordan didn't win championships until he had the right players to support him.

I can't emphasize enough a head smart QB is more valuable than a super star QB who the team relys on to make the big plays without getting others involved.Our receivers White and jenkins are going to have to make more of an impact.Our defense obviously we need to stop the run and get a pass rush on the other team.Off line needs more talent,look at pitts off line.

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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:05 pm 
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Plummer has been like this his whole career. When he was at ARizona, everyone said he just needed a good offensive line to help his career. Different team, different coach, same Plummer. Each year he has given up as many or more INT's than TD's.


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:11 pm 
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Although Pittsburgh doesn't throw the ball that often, they are one of the most efficient passing teams in the league, meaning they can move the ball through the air. If we look at first downs completed vs. pass attempts, you find the teams rank like so:

2. Seattle
4. Pittsburgh
8. Denver
9. Carolina

The Falcons ranked 19th in that category, which basically means our passing offense is pretty average in terms of efficiency. All 6 AFC playoff reps ranked in the Top 10 in this category, while 3 NFC reps: Bucs (18), Giants (22), and Bears (31) ranked poorly.

This stat doesn't mean a lot when indicating who will win games since the Colts (#1) and Bengals (#3) were highly ranked and lost in their first playoff games. But it does show that Pittsburgh is very capable when they do throw it, so I suspect if a team is able to thwart the run/pass ratio stat trend, Pittsburgh is capable.

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