By the way Pudge, what do you mean Reeves would pass on Bush...Reeves and Hill traded up for Vick.
I look at several factors that would lead me to believe that Reeves would pass up on Bush at #1 and instead take someone like Leinart.
1. Bush doesn't quite fit the offensive style of Reeves. In retrospect, it's easy to see that Warrick Dunn was not Reeves ideal choice to replace Jamal. It's why he quickly snatched up Duckett in '02 because T.J. is the type of runner that fits Reeves style. Reeves said it himself, up until 48 hours before the draft the Falcons didn't think they would be in a position to draft Duckett. That being said, I think it's safe to say that the Falcons did not envision the possibility of Duckett being a Falcon when they forked up $25 million or so to sign Warrick Dunn. At that time, they figured Dunn or Garrison Hearst (reportedly our 1st choice before Dunn) were the best options the team had for adding a replacement/supplement to Jamal.
IMO, Bush is best in an offense where he can run outside, line up at WR, and basically do his best to spread defenses out to make advantage of his speed and create other matchup problems. Is that the sort of offense Dan Reeves runs? No, he runs a straight up the gut, 2-WR, 2-TE style offense. What in Reeves history would make you think he would line Bush up as a slot receiver? What in Reeves history would make you think he would try his best to get all 3 of Houston's best weapons on the field at the same: Andre Johnson, Domanick Davis, and Reggie Bush?
2. As you said, Reeves and Hill traded up for Vick. Who is a QB? I think Reeves would sort of wish for the proverbial lightning to strike twice. Look at what Vick did for the Falcons. Maybe Leinart can do the same for the Texans. Only Eli Manning since Vick has brought the sort of excitment to NFL scouts as Leinart does. Almost every "expert" in the world would tell you that Leinart would be a shoe-in for the #1 pick under normal circumstances. But Bush is what makes this draft abnormal.
3. David Carr is set to hit free agency after this year. The Texans have to decide whether they think Carr is worth keeping and paying a few million, or to go in a new direction. Financially, keeping Carr is going to cost less than what it will be to draft a QB #1. But I think with Martz, he would look at Carr as a continuation of the types of QBs he's had success with:
1. Trent Green, a career 3rd stringer until he went to Washington and supplanted Gus Frerotte as the starter. The very next year Martz moves onto St. Louis and brings Green with him, but..
2. Kurt Warner emerges as a AFL/marginal NFL QB and has MVP seasons under Martz. Then...
3. Marc Bulger. A guy that bounced from practice squad to practice squad his first few years in the league, but finally takes over for Warner, and is currently one of the 5 most successful (winning %) QBs in the NFL.
Carr is exactly the type of QB that Martz loves and has won with. A guy that most people think is done or not good enough and will be a perfect fit into his offense. Now, under Reeves, I see Reeves saying, "No, Carr has been contributing to the team's losing ways and it's time to go in another direction."
Now I don't believe that Reeves is the only coach out there that would make that decision, since it is an unwritten rule that when a new head coach takes over a team, they draft a QB.
If you look at the 52 head coaching changes that have occurred from 1997 to the present that were considered new regimes (i.e an interim head coach was not promoted or a former assistant promoted), in 30 of those cases, that team drafted a QB in the very next draft. And in 6 of those 22 cases in which the new head coach did not choose a QB, his predecessor had picked a QB in first 4 rounds of the draft the year before (which usually prompts that they give those caliber guys a bit more time to develop). If you look at the coaching chances under the same conditions that have come in the past 5 years, from 2001 on, it has been 16 QBs drafted in 27 hires. Roughly, that means that the Texans have a 60% chance of drafting a QB this upcoming off-season.
When Reeves took over the Falcons in 1997, he drafted Tony Graziani. In 1981, he drafted Mark Herrmann in his first draft with the Broncos. He did not draft a player for the Giants in 1993, but one could argue that may have had something to do with the team using a first round pick on Dave Brown in the previous summer's supplemental draft.
So when you look at these factors, I think that Dan Reeves if all things were equal, would take Matt Leinart #1 before he took Reggie Bush.
And yes trading down is definitely an option. The Texans will be in a position to trade down with any team willing to jump up to get Leinart or Bush. Those teams that stand a chance are the Jets, Saints, Titans, Browns, Lions, Ravens, Raiders, and Cardinals all possibly looking for a QB of Leinart's caliber, or the 49ers, Packers, Cardinals, and Ravens all that might be in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes.
Of course all this argument is moot if Bush shocks the world and stays in school.