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RYAN MATHEWS
5-11/220
Fresno State Junior

PROS: He has good balance and footwork to weave through traffic and can sidestep defender in the hole. Has nice speed and vision. Is tough between the tackles. Runs with nice power because he keeps his feet moving after contact and will lower the shoulder on an unsuspecting defensive back.
CONS: Lacks good explosiveness or burst out of his cuts and is mostly a straight-line runner. Lacks a burner's speed to be a homerun threat at the next level. Mostly will only break arm tackles. Lacks awareness as a blocker and needs to improve his concentration as a receiver.
OVERVIEW: Mathews is a productive runner that you like because he shows good vision which is always a key ingredient for long-term NFL success.
NFL FORECAST: Mathews can be a solid starter in the NFL. He reminds me of Ryan Grant in terms of his build and running style. And like Grant, he doesn't wow you with his talent, behind a good zone-blocking line, he can be a very productive player. I think Mathews could stand to get bigger, which I don't think would really negatively impact his game. He'll have to improve in the passing game where his blocking and catching leaves a lot to be desired. And as such, at least immediately he should go to a team that already has an established third down back where he can work on first and second down. Besides vision, he doesn't excel in any area. He has enough speed to break some long runs in the NFL, but his success there will be because of good downfield blocking more so than his own abilities. And he has enough power that he can hold up as an interior runner if you give him 20 or more carries, but there aren't going to be many times where he runs over a guy. I'm not sure he'll come in right away and make a big impact, but a year or two down the line he can be a productive player. I think he'll be a pro like Grant, who few call an elite back, but will be one of the better backs and have fairly steady production over a number of years.
ATL FORECAST: Mathews would be a nice successor to Turner, but because of his deficiencies as a third down option, he's not going to play much right away unless Turner is hurt. He's probably not a great fit in Atlanta because we don't run a pure zone-blocking scheme, although we run a lot of it. But he could be productive in this offense if like Turner he's really only asked to run the ball, as opposed to being an every down player. But probably by the time the Falcons would be prepared to get rid of Turner two or so years down the line, he should be a competent contributor on passing downs. But he'd essentially be being saved for 2011 and beyond and being a less than ideal fit in the offense doesn't make his addition an overly smart one.
VALUE: Mathews is good enough to sneak into the first round, but probably is more in line with second round talent because he'll have to be a situational runner early on and doesn't really project to excel in any situation.

SKILLS
1-poor, 2-weak, 3-above average,4-very good, 5-elite

SPEED: 3.0
POWER: 3.0
AGILITY: 3.0
VISION: 4.0
HANDS: 2.0
BLOCKING: 2.5

Pros: Pretty good size and good speed for the position. Has pretty good vision to find the hole or a cut-back lane, and has pretty good speed to get the corner on the outside. Doesn’t dance around in the backfield and does a good job of going North-South consistently. Has good leg drive and will lower his shoulder to run a defender over. Runs through arm tackles well and has pretty good balance as a runner to stay upright. Flashes an extra gear to break off long runs.

Cons: Doesn’t look like he has much of a burst to hit the hole. He seems to be going at one speed when he gets the ball and when he hits the hole. Has some burst, but not much. Only flashes the explosiveness to break off long runs. Doesn’t have reliable hands and needs to improve them to be an every down back. Also is largely untested as a blocker, so he will need to be coached up in that regard if he wants to contribute as an every down back. Doesn’t run with great power and doesn’t have elite home run hitting speed.

Overall: Matthews is a pretty well rounded runner, but he is one dimensional in that regard. He has pretty good speed but doesn’t have a burst to hit the hole, and doesn’t have much of an extra gear to hit the home run. He will run through arm tackles and lower his shoulder to run over smaller defenders, but he doesn’t run with great power outside of running with good leg drive and falling forward. He has good vision and will find cut-back lanes and get going North-South, but doesn’t hit the hole hard and fast. His hands are suspect and he needs to improve his ability to catch out of the backfield, and he is also untested as a blocker. His ceiling is a quality starting running back, but he won’t ever be a great back or a Pro-Bowler. If he develops as a receiver and becomes an every down back once he learns how to block he could be an effective threat, maybe a less effective receiving version of Matt Forte, and be a quality running back with a nice 8-9 year career (which is about the shelf-life for running backs these days). His floor is probably a situational guy who can help wear down a defense a bit but never becomes a well-rounded running back and remains only a relatively effective runner.

Projection: Late 1st-Mid-2nd: I think he will go in the early-mid 2nd round and I think that is good value for him. He should be a quality RB in the NFL, but he won’t ever be great. For a team needing a guy who can run between the tackles effectively Matthews can be your guy, and he has room to develop as a receiver and a blocker with coaching.

SKILLS
1-poor, 2-weak, 3-above average,4-very good, 5-elite

SPEED: 3.5
POWER: 3.0
AGILITY: 3.5
VISION: 4.0
HANDS: 2.0
BLOCKING: 2.5