Reezy The Savior wrote:
Can Alex Smith make those throws and that run consistently, I am not a prisoner of the moment so I am going with Ryan.
It really is that simple.
Smith balled, but until I see Alex Smith play like that for an entire season, then why should I choose him? But we already know that in Steve's mind, 1 game makes an entire career.
Smith's regular season was comparable to Ryan's. Then Smith performed much better than Ryan ever has in the playoffs. Are you really going to argue that Ryan had a better year?
Yes, I will argue that Ryan had a better year.
ESPN's Total QBR
Ryan - ranked 5th, 67.5
Smith - ranked 22nd, 46.4
FOOTBALL OUTSIDER'S DVOA
Ryan - ranked 7th, 24.6%
Smith - ranked 14th, 10.4%
ADVANCED NFL STATS' WIN PERCENTAGE ADDED
Ryan - ranked 7th, 3.02
Smith - ranked 16th, 1.15
i.e. Ryan added 3 wins to his team, Smith added 1.
ADVANCED NFL STATS EXPECTED POINTS ADDED per PLAY
Ryan - ranked 10th, 0.15
Smith - ranked 18th, 0.08
ADJUSTED NET YARDS PER ATTEMPT
Ryan - ranked 8th, 6.8
Smith - ranked 15th, 6.1
Now in their playoff game, Smith's QBR was 78, while Ryan's was 37. Smith's ANYA was 7.04, while Ryan's was 4.26.
But I'm sure you're looking simply at traditional passer rating and seeing Ryan's is 92 and Smith's is 91, and that coupled with their playoff performances, is your indicator that Smith is the superior passer. It's ridiculous at this point that people continue to look at traditional passer rating as a comparative tool between players. It's a nice snapshot of overall efficiency, but it really tells you very little about a QB.
I try to look at more than 1 or 2 things in order to make my judgments, especially when I'm comparing and contrasting.
Matt Ryan had 4 games this past year where he had an ESPN TOTAL QBR of under 50, which means he performed below average. Alex Smith OTOH had 7 such games. The lowest QBR Ryan had this year was 28.8 against the Packers. Smith had 4 games in which his QBR was lower than 28.8, with his season low being a 9.4 he had against Arizona in Week 14. Matt Ryan had 7 games in which his QB was 80 or more. Smith had only 2 such games.
So again, like I said, if you can get Smith playing at the level he played at in the playoffs for an entire season, then I would say he might be worth taking over Ryan.
Now, down the stretch Smith seemingly played well. With exception of those games against Arizona (9.4 QBR), and Baltimore (15.8), he had a QBR of 67.7 or higher in 6 of his last 8 games, with the highest being a 79.0 vs. Pittsburgh. Now with Ryan, for whatever reason, ESPN did not list Ryan's QBR for the season finale against the Bucs (presumably because Redman played the majority of the game), but in 5 of his last 8 games, he had a QBR of 80.6 or higher, with a 6th game (vs. 2nd NO) at 70.7, and his two lows were 31.2 (vs. HOU) and 55 (vs. 1st NO).