Who's on the roster?
#30 Jeff Chaney (5'10" 205, 1st yr., Florida State)
#45 T.J. Duckett (6' 254, 2nd yr., Michigan State)
#28 Warrick Dunn (5'9" 180, 7th yr., Florida State)
#33 Justin Griffith (5'11" 232, rookie, Misssippi State)
#36 Travis Jervey (6' 222, 9th yr., The Citadel)
#38 George Layne (5'11" 250, 3rd yr., Texas Christian)
#42 Fred Talley (5'8" 181, rookie, Arkansas)
Projected starters: Dunn (tailback), Layne (fullback)
Top backups: Duckett (tailback), Griffith (fullback)
Newcomer: Griffith (4th round pick), Talley (undrafted rookie)
The additions of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett were beneficial moves in 2002. The team hopes that with a full year under their belts and more experience in the offense, they can be even better in 2003.
Warrick Dunn is the starter, and should remain in the feature role. Dunn struggled early last season, but really picked up his game by about midseason. At first it seemed that Dunn was a mistake, but his play down the stretch was good enough that made him an essential part of the offense. There were still times when Dunn looked like he was a poor fit for the offensive style, which Dan Reeves still prefers power and patience to speed and spontaneity. But Dunn proved that with enough carries he would break a long one and display his homerun abilities.
Dunn's best asset is his abilities in the passing game. Dunn is probably the best receiver the Falcons have had out of the backfield in the past fifteen years. Dunn also is more developed as a blocker than his counterpart, Duckett, which makes him instrumental on third downs both as a receiver and blocker.
Duckett is the antithesis of Dunn, he features power over speed. Duckett has good speed, but like many other players his size, he does not have the explosion right from the start. That will be an area he will need to improve on over the next few years. Duckett has good hands, something which was questionable when coming out of college, but he is not yet developed enough as a blocker to take a larger role on third downs.
But Duckett is being groomed as the eventual feature runner. If not for his midseason injuries, it was very likely that Duckett would have ended the season as the Falcons starting running back. But his injuries hit, and Dunn's production improved, and therefore he was severely limited until late in the season.
Duckett may get more opportunities this year. If he is 100%, then Dunn will have to again look over his shoulder, because if he falters at all, Reeves will not hesitate to replace him with Duckett as he seemingly was last year.
The third running back spot will likely fall to Travis Jervey again. Jervey gets his kicks on special teams and in 1997 he was invited to the Pro Bowl because of his skills there. It will be hard for Jervey not to be on the roster because of his special teams abilities.
Offensively, Jervey is only average. He has good speed and decent hands, but lacks vision as a runner. Jervey does however offer versatility, as in the past he's worked both at halfback and fullback. In the event of increased playing time it will likely be due to an emergency, but the team could do worse than Jervey.
Trying to gain a roster spot also are Jeff Chaney and Fred Talley. But it's unlikely either will have the special teams gifts to unseat an ex-Pro Bowler, so it's more likely both players are vying for a chance to stick on the practice squad.
Chaney played in NFL Europe this past spring, and was impressive, but not outstanding. That doesn't bode well for him since very few ex-European backs have stuck in the NFL, and those that have had outstanding springs. Chaney offers good hands and some speed, but lacks great vision as a runner. His future potential lies solely in his abilities to contribute in the passing game.
Talley features speed, but was not used much as a receiver in college. He'll get a chance to contribute as a return man, as his best chance will be showing that he is good on special teams. He likely won't get much work in the preseason, so he's going to have to show that he can get the job done in drills.
This position is questionable as two inexperienced players vie for the starting position. If neither player emerges then the team will de-emphasize the position and use more double tight end and single back sets.
But the team is hopeful that one of its two young talents can emerge. If you could call anyone the incumbent it would be George Layne. Layne started in the playoffs when Bob Christian was out with injury. Layne has good size and has good upside as a lead blocker. Layne has some skill both as a runner and receiver and had an excellent training camp in 2002. But he suffered a concussion and was subsequently cut with an injury settlement. The Falcons reclaimed him the first chance they got and it was a good move as they needed him.
But it was concussions that caused Bob Christian to retire prematurely, and Layne is not even 25 and already has one to his name.
Because of this, the Falcons drafted Justin Griffith in the fourth round of the draft. Griffith has similar abilities to Bob Christian, and the Falcons hope he can hit the ground running and contribute early on.
Griffith needs to improve as a lead blocker, but his running and receiving skills are outstanding. But until he improves a blocker, he will be looking at Layne from the sideline.
It is clear that Griffith is expected to be the starter down the road, but it will be difficult for him to unseat Layne this year, especially if Layne has a repeat of last summer.
If both players start slow, the team will likely try and add a veteran. Also T.J. Duckett and Travis Jervey may get extra reps at the position, as well as a few tight ends. Alge Crumpler and Brian Kozlowski both have experience playing the position, and will probably get the brunt of the extra work.
Salary Cap Sense
The salary cap really should not be an issue at this position considering that five players are near locks to make the roster. But if it does become an issue, it will likely come down to Travis Jervey who gets the axe. The team would save cap space if it planned on using Layne or Griffith as its specialized special teams back, and preferred to cut Jervey and opt for a cheaper option like Chaney or Talley. That move would save the team $250,000.
Predictions