Who's on the roster?
#44 Bob Christian (5'11" 232, 11th yr., Northwestern)
#45 T.J. Duckett (6' 254, rookie, Michigan State)
#28 Warrick Dunn (5'9" 180, 6th yr., Florida State)
#36 Travis Jervey (6' 222, 8th yr., Citadel)
#38 George Layne (5'11" 250, 2nd yr., Texas Christian)
#43 Maurice Smith (6' 235, 3rd yr., North Carolina A&T)
#27 Terrance Williams (5'10" 185, rookie, Central Florida)
Projected starters: Dunn (halfback), Christian (fullback)
Top backups: Duckett (halfback), Layne (fullback)
Newcomers: Duckett (1st round pick), Dunn (free agent/Buccaneers), Williams (undrafted rookie).
The team overhauled the halfback position in the off-season by getting rid of long-time Falcon runner Jamal Anderson, and bringing in Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett. At first the team's plans were to retain Anderson, even after signing Dunn in March.But when they selected Duckett a month later with the 18th overall selection in the draft, Anderson's 8-year career in Atlanta was over.
Dunn will be the starter. The team did not pay him $28.5 million in order for him to not be. Dunn is coming off a down year as a Buccaneer, after having a career season in 2000. But the Falcons hope that the change in scenery should help Dunn a lot. Dunn is small, but has outstanding speed. His abilities as a big play threat are greatly needed to spark the offense. Dunn should be extraordinarily fast on the turf of the Georgia Dome. Dunn also brings excellent abilities as a receiver out of the backfield. His hands are so good that the Falcons may create offensive sets that will use him as a slot receiver.
One of things that attracted Dunn to Atlanta, rather than staying in Tampa Bay or moving on to Philadelphia, was the promise that he would get more touches than he did in Tampa Bay. He wants 20 or more touches per game. At one point in the off-season that looked like it would come true, but with the presence of Duckett that is not so sure now.
Since Dan Reeves' offense relies on controlling the clock, he opted to get after Duckett. Dunn, although skilled, doesn't have the stature that is preferred when an offense wants to grind out a game. Duckett does. He is one of the biggest runners in the league. He also has good speed to boot, and his hands are much more developed than most people thought. Duckett will push Dunn for the starting position, but it's unlikely he'll win the job. But what Duckett will most likely be playing for in camp is how much playing time he receives during the regular season. If Duckett has a great summer, he'll split time with Dunn, and may actually play more than Dunn. If Duckett is above average to good, then he'll still get a lot of work during the regular season, but Dunn will be the primary ballcarrier. If Duckett is any less, then he'll only be used in limited situations. Immediately, Duckett brings a physical inside runner with more speed and power than Jamal. Duckett's biggest obstacles will be getting into camp on time, since as of this writing he is still unsigned, and getting down the playbook.
The Falcons are in a pretty good situation at the halfback position. If Duckett is not as awesome as some hope as a rookie, the team has a fallback player in Maurice Smith. Smith is coming off a knee injury that limited him over the second half of last season. Smith, an undrafted free agent in 2000, has had a very promising career thus far. Last year, Smith gained the starting
position after Anderson went down with a torn ACL in Week 3 vs. the Cardinals. Despite his size, Smith is not a power runner. He plays more like a 5'9" 215 runner. He has good speed, and one of his flaws is his inability to run over defenders. Smith rushed for 516 yards on 123 carries (4.2 avg) in his first six appearances last year. But afterwards, only broke 50 yards in a game once and finished with 244 yards on 114 carries (2.1 avg) in the final 8 games. He was playing those final four weeks on a sprained right knee, and had been battling neck and ankle injuries early in the season. If Smith is healthy to go in training camp, he has a legitimate shot at pushing for playing time. With Dunn and Duckett ahead of him he will be hard-pressed to earn playing time, as Reeves has been reluctant to even play two backs in the past, let alone three. A good summer, and Smith may see a few carries a game. What will also help Smith is performing on special teams. He has not played that much since his rookie camp in 2000. Smith showed some skills in that area, but at the time the team was more focused on preparing him for the offensive part of the game. If Smith performs well on special teams, it will mean he'll be active in games and thus opens opportunities for him to get on the field on offense.
A player that hopes that Smith does not perform on special teams is Travis Jervey. Jervey was re-signed after a solid year on special teams in 2001. Jervey has good speed and decent hands, but is not really that much of a threat offensively. He was very unproductive last preseason when he was facing third string talent. But Jervey is very good on special teams. He went to the Pro Bowl in 1997 with the Packers in that role. Jervey was kept on the roster last year initially as the fourth back because of his skills on special teams. If Smith performs in that area, then Jervey's presence is needed less and that roster spot can go to a player that fills more of a dual role on offense or defense along with special teams.
Terrance Williams rounds of the halfback depth chart. Williams was a reserve at Central Florida, but must have caught a scout's eye during his stint as a junior college player. I don't know too much about Williams, but guessing from his size, he's probably a quicker back in the mold of Dunn. He wasn't very productive as a receiver on the collegiate level, so his abilities there are questionable. Williams has almost no chance to make the roster, but will be pushing for a practice squad spot. If he plays well in preseason, he'll get a chance to earn a spot there and hopefully challenge for a roster spot next summer.
Bob Christian has been the uncontested starting fullback since his arrival in 1997. That won't change this year. Christian has begun to get some recognition around the league with his smart, unflashy, but effective play. He had career highs in rushing yards (284), receptions (45), and receiving yards (392). Christian is not a dominating lead blocker, but does his job well due
to his intelligence and finesse skills. His skills as a pass protector were also sorely needed last year. With Anderson out of the lineup, Christian had to fill a much needed role there since Maurice Smith was still under-developed as a blocker. Christian has soft hands, and is a proficient runner as one can see with a 6.5 average last year. Although Christian won't lose his starting job, this summer will be the first that he'll really have to look over his shoulder. Because waiting there is George Layne.
Layne won't be vying for a starting position, but he'll be vying for the opportunity to get that chance soon. If he is good enough this season, then he may get a legitimate shot next summer as Christian's age and cap numbers are climbing. Layne was added to the roster when Anderson went down. He was originally a fourth round pick by the Chiefs. Layne did not play too much, but did get in some offensively as the season wore on. Layne has impressed the coaching staff with his rushing, receiving, and blocking skills. Layne has added weight since last season and is a powerhouse. For the first time since Reeves' arrival in Atlanta, the Falcons may have a backup fullback that will actually play. But Layne is not assured of a roster spot just yet. He will have to prove himself on special teams. Although Layne will probably get some playing time on offense, most if any at all will come on special teams.
The Falcons will almost certainly only keep five players at this position. Dunn, Duckett, and Christian are assured of jobs. The final two will be scrapped out between Smith, Jervey, and Layne. Although all six are good players, there probably won't be room and cap space to keep them all. Smith is the best bet of the remaining three to make the roster. Pretty much the only way he won't is if he's not good on special teams and his rehab regresses during camp. That leaves Jervey and Layne fighting for the final spot. The fifth position goes to the best special teams player. Jervey has the edge, but Layne won't need to out-perform him, just play nearly to his level to gain the spot. Nobody expects Layne to be as good as Jervey, but if he's in his league that is more than good enough. Williams is the odd-man out, but with a good summer could earn a practice squad position.
Salary Cap Sense
Combined, Dunn, Duckett, and Christian will cost around $5 million against this year's cap. That is a lot of space, but manageable. I believe cutting the following players would free up this amount of space or avoid paying that much: Jervey ($450,000), Smith ($375,000), Layne ($298,000), and Williams ($225,000). Those figures are not exact, but estimates. It would be cheaper for the Falcons to keep Smith and Layne, so that's probably what they want do.
Predictions