FalcBlog

I was reading a blog by Mike Florio (of ProFootballTalk.com) posted on The Sporting News, that made mention of the Falcons making the seventh worst move of the off-season by drafting Matt Ryan over Glenn Dorsey.

I won't dispute whether Dorsey was the better pick/player, but I disagree wholeheartedly with the notion that the gulf between the two is so significant that it makes taking Dorsey a "safe" pick and Ryan a risky one.

The key point of contention I have with Florio's entry is this part:

So Atlanta took a huge risk by selecting Matt Ryan. As history tells us, the odds of success when taking a quarterback that high are the equivalent of flipping a coin.

Everything might work out for the Falcons. But the chances of that happening would have been better if they had taken Dorsey at No. 3 and a quarterback in Round 2.

I don't dispute that success rates of first round quarterbacks is about around 50-50 in terms of developing into quality NFL players.

But in looking at first round defensive tackles, it doesn't seem like their success rate is any better. Then factor in that second round quarterbacks have a success rate of around 30-70.

I understand that missing on a first round quarterback can do a lot more damage to your team than a first round defensive tackle and/or second round quarterback. But that seems "soft" to me: drafting under the mindset of minimizing destruction as opposed to maximizing construction. That operates under the idea of maintaining the status quo, which is the last thing any Falcon fan should want.

And either way, according to Peter King, had the Falcons taken Dorsey at No. 3, they would have settled on Chad Henne in the second round. And if that's true, then I have no misgivings whatsoever about choosing Ryan instead of Dorsey. Because the way I see it, the gap in ability between Ryan and Henne is so significant, that it's worth the risk.

Posted by Aaron at 8:30 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Don Banks discussed the ramifications of the 80-man roster limit in this most recent article on SI.com. It's a good read, and while it may seem rather trivial to the casual fan, it does have perhaps significant ramifications for all teams and the Falcons in particular.

By my current count, the Falcons have 91 players on their roster, which includes their 11 draft picks. So that means, that for each draft pick that is signed, the Falcons will have to release a player currently on the team. Obviously, that's 11 current players on this roster that won't have opportunities to compete for jobs, thus watering down competition during the summer, and weakening potential depth. It also means that the Falcons may stall negotiations with their rookies a bit until they can get good long looks at everybody currently on the roster.

Obviously, we know of many of the undrafted stars that have come into the league over the past several years: Tony Romo, Willie Parker, Jeff Saturday, Antonio Gates, Kurt Warner, Rod Smith, etc. It's possible that one of the 11 players the Falcons are forced to release between now and late July could be one of those guys.

Banks also rights about how inexperienced coaches might have difficulty managing the roster, particularly when it comes to injuries that inevitably occur during training camp. Obviously, that has real world resonance for us, since Mike Smith is a first-time head coach. Also it means that the Falcons may be cutting good players this summer simply because they are hurt. In past years, being injured and missing one or two weeks of practice was an obstacle, but one that could be overcome. Now, it may not be.

My expectation in looking over the roster is that the 11 guys that will be inevitably dumped will be from the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the secondary. Those are the three areas I think most Falcon fans would agree represent are the bigger question marks on the team and where competition is really needed to filter out the good from bad.

Hopefully all goes well. And while the tough decisions that will need to be made in July and August won't necessarily doom the Falcons season, it certainly can cause quite a bit of subtle damage.

Posted by Aaron at 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Well if you don't know, our new first round pick Matt Ryan is represented by super-agent Tom Condon, who is a sort of guru among agents for quarterbacks. He represented Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, and Drew Brees. And what do all of these guys have in common? They all held out trying to get their contracts done.

That's Condon's go-to move. Hold out his player. Granted, I don't believe Alex Smith or Eli Manning held out, but both were No. 1 picks, so neither should have held out. But if a guy is a quarterback drafted in the first round that isn't a No. 1 pick and is repped by Condon, it seems a strong possibility that they will hold out.

This won't earn Ryan any fans in Atlanta if (or should I say when) he holds out. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Rams will get an early deal done with Chris Long which represents a firm ceiling for negotations with Ryan and Condon. But frankly, that seems the only way that the Falcons will get Ryan into camp on Day 1 in my book.

But the fact that Ryan doesn't come into camp on time, may not be completely negative. Frankly, the more time he misses the less likely that he'll be asked to play early in his career. There are some rumors among the fan base that the new brass is poised to start Ryan in Week 1. I think that's highly doubtful, but just in case it's not, a holdout will more than likely nix such ideas.

I'd be willing to bet if we could rank every Falcon fan based on their love for Matt Ryan, I would probably be in the top five. But despite this, I don't want to see him starting right away. That would be a terrible decision, and would tell me that we made the wrong hire in Mike Smith if that happens. The only way Ryan should be starting early in the season is if Chris Redman and Joey Harrington are both injured, D.J. Shockley is dead, and Kordell Stewart is hospitalized getting that keloid burned off the side of his face. I like Ryan a lot, but Peyton Manning he is not. And the powers that be in Atlanta have to do everything, and I mean everything in their power to come up with reasons why he should not play as a rookie.

But that's about the only positive I can spin out of a holdout for Ryan. Otherwise, the benefits of him coming to camp on time definitely outweigh that single positive of him holding out. The more reps in practice he gets, the more comfortable in the offense he gets. The quicker and better he builds a rapport with some of his receivers. And while I don't want Ryan to start as a rookie, it's obviously in the Falcons best interests to prepare him for that possibility (or even likelihood).

Both Leinart and Brees missed about two weeks, Leftwich 18 days, and Quinn 11 days. I'm hoping that Condon sets a new record, one being the shortest holdout of a non-No. 1 quarterback to sign. I'm shooting for less than a week. Arthur Blank is the kind of guy that is going to make sure a deal gets done before things get too protracted. If only for PR purposes. Since the majority of Falcon fans (not me) think it was PR that drove the team to draft Ryan in the first place.

Posted by Aaron at 9:08 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post