Sunday, February 24, 2008

Trading up to #1

The Miami Herald reported on Saturday about the possibility of the Falcons dealing DeAngelo Hall to the Dolphins as part of a bid to get the Dolphins less than coveted No. 1 overall draft pick. The immediate presumption I'm more many would make is that the Falcons would be trading up to get Boston College QB Matt Ryan. But I'm hear to suggest that if such a move were made, the Falcons should instead do it to target Virginia DE Chris Long.

If you ask me (and by default you are since you're reading this), Long is the best prospect in this draft. That doesn't mean he's the most talented, but when you factor in talent, character, work ethic, and how he projects to the NFL, all the things that scouts consider when they are building their draft board, he's the best player.

He has the potential to be every bit if not better than his Hall of Fame father. The likely trade scenario would involve the Falcons shipping Hall and the No. 3 overall pick to Miami for the No. 1 overall pick. And frankly, I think so highly of Long, I would really think about making this trade.

Now, I'm sure there are those thinking: "Why would the Falcons draft another 1st round DE when we just drafted Jamaal Anderson last year?" Well, my response is that you're not drafting Long to replace Anderson, you're drafting him to replace John Abraham.

I hope Abe is going anywhere anytime soon. But let's be reasonable. In 2010, Abraham will be 32 years old and carry a cap hit of over $9 million. It's just unrealistic at this point to expect him to continue to be producing at a level by then that would merit such a financial investment.

So drafting his replacement sooner rather than later makes a lot of sense, considering that is does take at least a year or two before defensive ends adjust to the NFL.

Mike Smith's defensive scheme is predicated on the front four being able to put pressure on the quarterback. It remains to be seen if Anderson can accomplish that, and it's likely that Abraham won't be able to for very much longer.

The other thing about Long is that while not as flashy as say other prospects, he's a very good face for this organization. He's got a great work ethic and already established and displayed great leadership skills at UVA. This is exactly the type of player that Dimitroff wants to build as the centerpiece in the new era of Falcons football.

So what does this do with our other draft options. Assuming we don't need to give up either of our 2nd round picks, we still are in a good position to move up to get a quarterback. It's unlikely at this point that Matt Ryan falls out of the Top 10, but a player like Brian Brohm could be had late in Round 1. While I don't think he's as good as Ryan, I wouldn't be upset if we had to "settle" for him.

Just say no to McFadden

Why? Not because he's short on talent. In fact, he's probably the most talented player in this draft class. But for two reasons, the first of which is because he plays running back.

And while running back certainly is an important position on the football field, it hasn't quite shown that it's a pivotal piece to team building.

Looking over the past decade or so at the elite running backs, and very few of them have Super Bowl rings. Many of them have played in Super Bowls, but almost everyone of them in order to win that game, needed a top quarterback. The bottom line is that if you want to build a foundation for your offense, you need to start with the quarterback position. Tiki Barber, Jerome Bettis, Barry Sanders, LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, etc. have all been great running backs over the years, but none of them have been able to earn a Super Bowl ring without a quality passer backing them up.

The Falcons are at a point where they are starting over. We hear the term rebuilding a lot, but for the Falcons it's going to be a complete overhaul. Where things are stripped down and built from the ground up. The first piece should not be a running back, simply because despite their greatness, teams cannot win championships if they are built around a running back.

A runner can certainly be your most potent weapon, but at some point in January you're going to face a team that is going to be able to put 8 or 9 men in the box and shut down your ground attack, and it'll wind up being up to your QB's arm to save the day.

The second reason to beware of McFadden is character. And no, I don't think McFadden is of low character, I just don't think he's of high character.

And as I said earlier, the Falcons are starting completely fresh, where they need to change the "culture" in the front office, city, fan base, and especially the locker room. We need high character guys.

I don't think McFadden is this type of player. Not because of his off-field run-ins with the law, although those are somewhat concerning. I don't think he has the maturity or shown the leadership ability to be a leader in the Falcons locker room early on. And that's exactly what the Falcons need out of whomever they pick in the first round this April.

I think McFadden is going to make some team very happy. But the truth is that not all NFL teams are created equally. And the situation and environment he would find himself in Atlanta would not be conducive for his success.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Draft Prospects: Jake Long

I've been thinking about this for quite a while now, and our top needs are left tackle, quarterback, and running back IMO. We have the chance to get the best tackle in this draft with our first round pick, and no one is really talking about it. Do they realize how great of a leader Jake Long is? He has average footwork, and he might be projected as a right tackle to some, but if we needed to, we can move Weiner to left tackle because of how well he's done against the finesse ends last year especially against J. Peppers.

Long is huge, and I'm starting to wonder why we would draft someone like Ellis or Dorsey when we can draft a later round defensive tackle that we can bring up in the NFL behind a veteran like Grady Jackson. I'm talking about Red Bryant who seems to be able to develop into a very solid UT for a 4-3.