FalcBlog

I'm sure you've been patiently waiting for my assessment of the Mike Smith hire, well here it is...

I'm fine with it. I'm not blown away, nor will I be crying myself to sleep tonight. It's a really even keel move if you ask me.

I see this guy as a John Fox clone. From everything I've read and seen about him, he seems very "Fox-esque." And it's interesting to note that before the season ended, people speculated that the Falcons would jump all over Fox if the Panthers had fired him (some suggesting the reason he wasn't let go for that very reason).

John F-err, Mike Smith comes off as a very conservative coach. Which I'm sure is going to absolutely thrill Falcon fans (that's sarcasm). If the Falcons acquire the personnel that fits that scheme, I'm sure he'll do well. If not, then three years from now we'll be looking for someone else. So all those people that are praying the Falcons draft Darren McFadden with their No. 1 pick this year, with this hire we seem to be one step closer to that.

I'm sure most are aware of Marcellus Wiley's comments on ESPN on Wednesday. Not reading too much into them. That's one person's assessment of Smith. From everything else I've read from the mouths of players, that viewpoint seems to be in the minority.

Reports say that he might bring in Mike Mularkey as the offensive coordinator. I guess that'll end Alge Crumpler's tenure in Atlanta. Or maybe Smith will hire his brother-in-law Brian Billick. So perhaps Steve McNair will be our opening day starter in 2008. The speculation could be endless now.

It's definitely going to be a process, and I'll take a wait and see approach.

Posted by Aaron at 2:43 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

So now, there are two reports from ESPN's Len Pasquarelli saying that Rex Ryan and Jason Garrett are set for a second batch of interviews either Monday night or Tuesday.

Frankly, I'm not that impressed. Well, let me stipulate that by saying if the Falcons have a head coach by Wednesday I won't be too impressed.

I want to see an extensive search! The six candidates that interviewed for the job prior to today in my opinion should have been a preliminary round of interviews targeted at assistants on playoff teams because there is only a small window to interview those people.

Now that we have a GM, I think we should open it up a little. Does the fact that Jason Garrett, Jim Caldwell, etc. coach on playoff teams make them better coaches than their counterparts on non-playoff teams? I don't think so. Do we honestly believe that the Titans defense went from 31st in 2006 to 8th in 2007 because Jim Schwartz coached his tail off this year? I hope not. Then what are the excuses for the 29th and 30th ranked finishes in 2005 and 2004 under his watch?

I don't know whether any of these guys will be good coaches. So I won't be too hard on the guy we eventually hire. They are all basically the same to me. Some people did a double take when they heard the Ravens had compiled a list of 30 possible candidates for their vacant job. Frankly, that's exactly what the Falcons should have done. Does that mean you conduct 30 interviews? No. You can whittle that list down to 6-10 names, and interview those guys. But you're going to sit here and tell me with a straight face that you believe that there are only 6 qualified candidates to be your team's head coach, and it's just a mere coincidence that 5 of them coached playoff teams this year? That's a joke if I've ever heard one.

Every team has somebody worth interviewing. I'll just say this, I'm not really going to be upset if the Falcons wind up hiring one of these six. But I am going to be very upset with the process. I was duped into thinking that the new general manager would be able to pick the guy he thought would best lead this team in the future. But instead the reality was that he would only be able to pick the best guy among the candidates that Blank and McKay determined.

If this proves to be the case, then all the negative press the Falcons have garnered in their "unorthodox" approach to their coaching and GM hires is completely earned.

Posted by Aaron at 1:55 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I'm betting there might be one or two people out there curious to hear me weigh in on this coaching search. Well, here goes...

Frankly, I don't care. I really don't. I think unless you're lucky enough to hire a proven winner like Marty Schottenheimer or Bill Cowher, then anyone you hire is going to be a calculated risk. And I don't really buy into the notion of the "Super Coach." If you don't know what I'm talking about, then I suggest you read Gregg Easterbrook's enlightening column from a month ago.

There are numerous pros and cons to every coach the Falcons could potentially hire, some of them I will briefly summarize now...

Jim Caldwell: Seems to be a Tony Dungy clone and seemingly the most likely candidate to replace Dungy if he should retire after this season. I'm not a huge fan of Dungy's quiet, confident demeanor and coaching style. If you have top talent, then it works, if not, then it stinks. Without Hall of Famers on the Colts offense and Bucs defense, Dungy probably wins half as many games as he does.

Jim Schwartz: A Moneyball enthusiast, who until this year had very underwhelming results as the Titans defensive coordinator. The Titans strong defensive performance was thanks to the play of Albert Haynesworth moreso than anything Schwartz did in my opinion. Does Moneyball work in the NFL? I don't know, but unless he has a GM that shares similar beliefs they won't be on the same page, which always leads to bad results.

Rex Ryan: Perhaps the son is paying for the sins of the father (Buddy) and his quirky and standoffish career as an NFL head coach. But what can we judge about Ryan's tenure as Ravens defensive coordinator? Nothing. The Ravens were a good defense before him, and likely will be one after him.

Jason Garrett: I'm sorry, despite the results seen in Dallas, I can't get on a bandwagon for a coach that has only three years of coaching experience at any level beyond high school. How much does Garrett's 12-year playing career factor into potential success as an NFL head coach? I don't know, but I'm not thinking very much. Call me Mr. Garrett when you've coached in the NFL or college for at least 8 years.

Tony Sparano: I got no real beef with Sparano actually outside the fact that he is by all accounts already been hired in Miami.

Mike Smith: Has done a good job with Jacksonville's defense over the years, but how much is it his doing, and how much is Del Rio's? This is always an issue when you hire the defensive coordinator from a team with an already defensive-minded coach.

Pete Carroll: I don't have a beef with Pete because he's a "college guy." My beef with him is that he had issues with motivating players, discipline, and late season collapses during his brief stints in New York and New England a decade ago. I think Carroll is an NFL coach moonlighting as a college coach, but I'm also not very keen on handing him complete control of the organization when he's shown no ability to succeed doing so at the NFL level.

Steve Spagnuolo: I guess I like him because he's a Jim Johnson disciple, which leads me to believe he'd be much more aggressive in his overall game-planning than most defensive coaches. Outside this and his purported fiery nature, I don't know enough about him to either like or dislike him.

If you ask me, who the Falcons pick as their next head coach will take a distant backseat to who they pick as their general manager in terms of importance. Teams win because of talent more so than coaching if you ask me. And I think the future success of the Falcons will come down to one key decision this off-season, and it's not who we hire in the top two jobs in the next few days or weeks, but how we settle our quarterback position.

Put me on the Matt Ryan bandwagon. While, I don't expect him to go onto to be a Hall of Famer, I do see a ton of similarities between Ryan and Tom Brady, in terms of their competitiveness, leadership skills, and efficiency. I'm of the mindset that while Matt Ryan alone cannot take the Falcons out of the cellar unto greatness, he certainly will be a huge step in the right direction. While a player like McFadden is a better and more talented player and "sexier" draft pick, teams don't win championships because they have good or great running backs. Just ask Barry Sanders, Tiki Barber, and LaDainian Tomlinson. They win championships because they have good quarterbacks, or they have defenses that are good enough to stop said quarterbacks. Unlike in fantasy football, in the real NFL you are supposed to get the QB before you get the RB.

So now you're asking if I think that the GM is the more important position, what are my thoughts on those candidates? Once again, I don't really care. Everyone we've interviewed doesn't have "final say" power in their respective organizations, so I can't really project what kind of decisions they would make if granted such authority here. The candidates I prefer are the ones that come from organizations that focus more on the draft than free agency. So really none of the candidates really look bad in my eyes.

Posted by Aaron at 3:51 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Well, the season is over and the Falcons were able to end on a bright note. I know thousands of Falcon fans are upset because it might have cost them their chance to get Darren McFadden. Oh well, the Falcons weren't going to draft DMac anyway, so ha! But that's another blog entry...

OFFENSE

Quarterback - Redman had his moments at the end of the year, and proved he was the best of a poor bunch of QBs. Don't get confused by his 90.4 passer rating and think this guy is a real NFL starter. Like the others, he's best suited as a backup, but his play at the end of the year, gives the Falcons at least a cheaper and potentially better option than Harrington and Leftwich for next year. GRADE: C

Running Back - The coaching staff loves Warrick Dunn for whatever reason. Hey I respect the hell out of him, but it was quite obvious to even the most simple people that he should have been watching Jerious Norwood from the sideline most of this season. Unfortunately, Norwood continued to show his lack of durability this year. Unfortunately, all the flash of Norwood was essentially canceled out by the exact opposite of Dunn. GRADE: C

Receivers - White played well, well enough to potentially earn himself a role as an alternate for the Pro Bowl (he did not of course). Jenkins was the team's second best receiver despite being fourth on the depth chart. Robinson and Horn played better in the final weeks than they probably did all year long. This position lacks a true dynamic No. 1, but there is some hope for the future that the WR crisis is finally over in Atlanta. This position hasn't looked as promising in over a decade. GRADE: B+

Offensive Line - This unit was one of the weaker ones around the league, but considering that they featured the likes of Quinn Ojinnaka, D'Anthony Batiste, etc. for several weeks does say that their performance was not as bad as perceived. Frankly, they seemed to play much better over the last few weeks of the season. They weren't good by any means, but acceptable. GRADE: C

Offensive MVP: Roddy White
Runners Up: Jerious Norwood, Chris Redman

Overview - The offense struggled all year long to put points on the board, and this was caused by a "perfect storm" of events: shoddy quarterback play, a lack of a running game, and poor blocking up front. I'm not going to blame one group or the other for it. They all worked hand in hand to produce one of the league's worst offenses. GRADE: C-

DEFENSE

Defensive Line - Abraham had a productive season, although in the middle of the year he sort of disappeared for some time. Jamaal Anderson was a big disappointment. Few should have expected him to record 10 sacks this year, but to not get a single one is pretty bad. Chauncey Davis clearly outplayed him, and if Anderson enters next year as the starter, then something is wrong with the Falcons brain trust. Injuries hurt the team in the middle, but Stanley and Lewis look like they can be contributors in the future, and Babineaux had his moments. GRADE: B-

Linebackers - Boley stood out from this unit. He was more deserving than White of being a Pro Bowl alternate, and he too got snubbed. Brooking had 1 or 2 good games, but that was about it. Demorrio Williams could be called Mr. Invisible, as he did nothing all year long except pick off two passes. The fact that he got significantly outplayed by an old, slow 31-year old playing out of position is telling. He won't be back. Stephen Nicholas had a few moments, and at least looks like he can be as effective a starter as Williams was. GRADE: B

Secondary - This unit was up and down all year, and for the most part was the weakness of the defense. The lack of a true nickel cornerback, the "greenness" of Chris Houston, the lazy play of DeAngelo Hall, etc. contributed to inconsistency here. Hall definitely had his finest moments, but seemed to have checked out mentality for a few weeks until Petrino quit. Chris Houston was a decent as a rookie, but he's still pretty green. Chris Crocker was forced to play nickel cornerback far too much, and did an okay job considering he's a run-stuffing safety. I would say that Hall had the best first half of anybody at this position, but Milloy had the better second half, showing there is still something left in the tank. but the Falcons were clearly outmatched for most of the season. And it clearly showed by the fact that they were 20th ranked in pass defense and gave up the 6th most passing touchdowns in the league. GRADE: C

Defensive MVP: Michael Boley
Runners Up: John Abraham, DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy

Overview - The defense, relatively speaking, played fairly well. Had the offense been able to put more than 13 points on the board most weeks, this unit's ranking would have been a lot better than the 28th (total defense) and 29th (scoring defense) that it wound up as. But this unit also seemed to check out mentally at a point during the middle of the season, and didn't show back up until Petrino quit. GRADE: B-

Special Teams - Koenen played very well. Mort despite making nearly 90% of his kicks, I never felt completely at ease when he trotted out on the field. But generally speaking, if you discount the fact that 43 yards was almost the limit of his range, he had a good season. Jennings played a lot better down the stretch than he did at the start of the year, and I think can make it as a return threat in the NFL in the future. But there were far too many penalties from this unit this year, and one wonders how Joe DeCamillis is doing in Jacksonville? GRADE: B

Coaching - Under Petrino, the coaching was okay. The team's play-calling and some of his decisions weren't good, but for most of his tenure you saw there was a lot of effort from this team. Under Emmitt Thomas, you saw increased effort. But as far as the Xs and Os go, there wasn't a major change. GRADE: B-

Rookies - It's too early to throw out the "B" word, but Anderson and Blalock were far from impressive as rookies. They had a few moments, but nothing that gets you excited. Robinson and Lewis were probably the most impressive rookies. Houston showed some flashes, but overall was only okay. Nicholas, if not for injuries in the middle of the year, probably would have been the starter by the end and could have been added to that group. Milner, Stone, and Irons contributed as reserves, although the latter two were confined to special teams mostly. Datish sat out the year with injury. And Snelling flashed enough at the end of the year to think he has a decent shot of being a short-yardage back in future years.

Most Valuable Rookie: Laurent Robinson. Lewis probably had a more impressive stint, but due to his season-ending injury, Robinson gets the nod for a more complete body of work.

2008 Outlook - It doesn't look promising, but one of the things that is going in the Falcons favor is that we will get a new coach and GM, and that could potentially energize the team to win some more of those close games. By my count there were 5 or 6 close games that the Falcons could have won, but did not. Perhaps the new coach can be the chief difference in that. I'm also optimistic since the team that had finished last in the NFC South each year has won the division the very next year, although if there was a time when that streak was likely to end it will be 2008. The Falcons have a lot of areas they need to address, none more important than the quarterback position. I expect the Falcons to win more than 4 games going forward next season, but how much more remains to be seen.

Posted by Aaron at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post