FalcBlog

In a nutshell, turnovers from the offense and a special teams breakdown blew the game wide open in the first half and then the run defense was gashed in the second half. When you have the ball for only 17 minutes, you just aren't going to win. When watching live, I noticed Devaney was sitting to the right of Blank instead of McKay. Knowing now that Blank pursued Parcells, it may have been that McKay was notified that he would not be the GM next season.

Here's what I saw:

Offense:

Running game: Dunn (8/32), Norwood (9/73), Snelling (1/-1), Mughelli (1/1) and Redman (1/1). Effective Runs (4 yards or more)-Dunn, 3 and Norwood, 6. Dunn also had 1 catch for 7 yards. One very strange call was Snelling's carry to the outside. Why run your short yardage guy outside? Didn't make sense to me.

Breakdown of passes:

Redman: 4/15, 34 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT. Breakdown of incompletions: 5 Bad passes, 4 Dropped passes and 2 Defended passes.

Drops (4): Mughelli, 1; Dunn, 2; Norwood, 1. The running backs had a very hard time catching the ball this week.

YTD Drops (44):

Jenkins 9
White 10
Crumpler 6
Horn 3
Dunn 8
Norwood 3
Blakley 1
Robinson 3
Mughelli 1

Run blocking: It was decent. Still seems that most yards are on pure speed for the most part.

Pass blocking: It was okay again. A couple of passes batted at the line, a sack resulting in a fumble and 2 more pressures all on 15 attempts. Nothing to get excited about.

Sack responsibility (1): The lone sack was on Clabo which resulted in a fumble.

YTD Sacks (42):

Scheme 3.0
Norwood 2.5
Gandy 1.0
Forney 3.0
Harrington 8.5
Weiner 1.5
Blalock 8.0
McClure 3.5
Dunn 1.0
Foster 1.0
Clabo 3.0
Ojinnaka 3.0
Batiste 2.0
Redman 1.0

Note: QB responsible sacks are those that he has at least 3 seconds and either chose to try to scramble or stayed in the pocket when the better decision would be to throw it away. Also includes those rushing attempts that go for 0 or negative yardage that for some reason are counted as a sack.


Defense:

Run defense: Allowed 190 yards and was very soft up front. Teams seem to just push us out of the way and do what they want.

Pass Defense: Wasn't bad but when you get almost 200 yards on the ground, who needs to pass?

Sacks: Davis and Abraham each had sacks. There were also 6 hurries so we did a good job of putting pressure on Garcia.

Special Teams:
Norwood had 2 kickoff returns: 1. from the -1, 19 yards; 2. from the 10, 13 yards. Not an overly good day and stopped returning after injury on a running play.

Jennings had 4 kickoff returns: 1. from the -1, 28 yards; 2. from the 9, 25 yards (negated by holding penalty); 3. from the 5, 13 yards; 4. from the -1, 31 yards. Definitely had the better day.

There was also 1 pooch kick that wasn't field cleanly.

Jennings had 1 punt return that resulted in a fumble but recovered by Chris Houston. He should have called for a fair catch on the play.

Koenen had 6 punts: 1-40 yards to the TB 34, 8 yard return. 2-36 yards to the TB 21, 7 yard return. 3-41 yards to TB 20, 8 yard return. 4-49 yards to the TB 26, 4 yard return (negated by illegal block penalty); 5-44 yards to the TB 41, 4 yard return; 6-63 yards to the end zone, no return. Very windy day but still a good day.

Koenen had 2 kickoffs: 1. to the 10, returned for touchdown; 2. to the TB 11, 8 yard return. Considering the wind, good distance.

Field Goals: Andersen made his only attempt from 33 yards.

Special Teams coverage: Outside of the touchdown allowed, very nice job.

Things that really need improvement:

1. Eliminate negative yardage plays (turnovers, penalties, negative rushes, and sacks).
2. O-line needs to get more push, reach the second level and put defensive players on their backs.
3. Find a GM AND Coach.

Offensive MVP: Jerious Norwood (73 yards rushing)

Defensive MVP: Chauncey Davis (4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 hurries)

Special Teams MVP: Stephen Nicholas and Ovie Mughelli (2 tackles each)

Goat of the Week: Bobby Petrino

Let me know your thoughts and questions otherwise:

Next up: AT Arizona Cardinals, December 23rd!

Posted by Cappy at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

This was just miserable and the day after Petrino decides to walk out on everyone. After hearing the news of his departure, I just about decided not to continue the reviews this season because whatever we see won't much matter since everything will be changing. However, these next few games may tell a lot about the players we have and more importantly, the players we don't have. So unlike Petrino, I refuse to quit and will continue no matter how rough it looks.

Here's what I saw:

Offense:

Running game: Dunn (6/3), Norwood (6/21), Snelling (3/9) and Redman (1/4). Effective Runs (4 yards or more)-Dunn, 1 and Norwood, 1. Dunn also had 1 catch for 11 yards, and Norwood had 2 catches for 57 yards. Norwood also had a couple of nice runs called back on holding penalties by WR's which has plagued this team all year. Also, I'd note that Snelling converted yet another 4th and 1 and appears to be golden in short yardage situations.

Breakdown of passes:

Redman: 23/40, 298 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Breakdown of incompletions: 5 Bad passes, 2 Throw aways, 1 Other (White quit on a route that looked very completable), 4 Dropped passes and 4 Defended passes. Despite the outcome of the game, Redman still appears to be the best option available.

Drops (4): Crumpler, 1; Jenkins, 1; White, 1; Norwood, 1. Jenkins had an opportunity late for a catch but was absolutely drilled and the ball popped loose. Probably technically a drop since he had it in his hands but I had a hard time calling that a drop but instead labeled it as "defended."

YTD Drops (40):

Jenkins 9
White 10
Crumpler 6
Horn 3
Dunn 6
Norwood 2
Blakley 1
Robinson 3

Run blocking: This just hasn't been very good all season and I don't expect it to improve.

Pass blocking: It was okay. Redman does a very good job of getting rid of the ball in less than 2 seconds MOST of the time otherwise, the sacks would surely go up.

Sack responsibility (3): First one is on Batiste. Second was due to Redman holding the ball too long and the final one was on a delayed LB blitz who had no one available to pick him up so that goes on the scheme.

YTD Sacks (41):

Scheme 3.0
Norwood 2.5
Gandy 1.0
Forney 3.0
Harrington 8.5
Weiner 1.5
Blalock 8.0
McClure 3.5
Dunn 1.0
Foster 1.0
Clabo 2.0
Ojinnaka 3.0
Batiste 2.0
Redman 1.0

Note: QB responsible sacks are those that he has at least 3 seconds and either chose to try to scramble or stayed in the pocket when the better decision would be to throw it away. Also includes those rushing attempts that go for 0 or negative yardage that for some reason are counted as a sack.


Defense:

Run defense: Allowing 145 yards to backups is embarrassing. The middle was very soft and taken advantage of all night in particular.

Pass Defense: Kornheiser said it best, it looked more like a passing drill than it did a game.

Sacks: No sacks and only 1 hurry. This was a huge factor in the why the pass defense looked as bad as it did.

Special Teams:
Norwood had 3 kickoff returns and 4 touchbacks (Mare did an excellent job on kickoffs): 1. from the -3, 19 yards; 2. from the -1, 23 yards; 3. from the 3, 31 yards (15 yards negated on McIntyre penalty). Nothing special tonight.

Jennings had 2 punt returns: 1. from the 39, 3 yards; 2. from the 23, 3 yards. Nothing special here either.

Koenen had 6 punts: 1-46 yards to the NO 9, no return. 2-23 yards to the NO 11, no return. 3-60 yards to NO 1, out of bounds. 4-58 yards to the NO 6, out of bounds; 5-53 yards to the NO 20, 1 yard return and fumbled (caused by Boley and recovered by Irons); 6-42 yards to the NO 39, no return. Outstanding day punting.

Koenen had 3 kickoffs: 1. to the end zone, touchback; 2. to the end zone, touchback; 3. to the 9, 19 yard return. Very good day kicking.

Field Goals: None

Special Teams coverage: Outside of the McIntyre penalty, very nice job.

Things that really need improvement:

1. Eliminate negative yardage plays (penalties, negative rushes, and sacks).
2. O-line needs to get more push, reach the second level and put defensive players on their backs.
3. Find a Coach.

Offensive MVP: Chris Redman (23/40, 298, 2 TDS/1 INT). Would have been Jenkins if not for the drop that resulted in a pick 6.

Defensive MVP: Michael Boley (4 tackles, 1 pass defended and 1 special teams fumble forced)

Special Teams MVP: Michael Koenen.

Goat of the Week: Bobby Petrino

Let me know your thoughts and questions otherwise:

Next up: AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers, December 16th!

Posted by Cappy at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Alright, to finish up my lengthy assessments, I'm going to be looking at linebackers, the secondary, and special teams.

LINEBACKERS

My Assessment: Boley might make the Pro Bowl this year, and he right now is the only guy here that is worth a damn. He makes plays and is active, and usually when we need to make a stop, he's the guy that often steps up to get it down. But Boley is no elite linebacker. He would probably rank in the third or so tier of guys around the league. He's a restricted free agent, so he needs to be locked up long-term, but the Falcons can't pay him like he's a Lance Briggs by any means. More like a David Thornton. The other two starters are marginal. Heck, I love Brooking for his long service and his toughness and effort. But he's an average starter at best. He's a poor fit really. He's too slow to play on the weakside anymore, as he lacks sideline to sideline speed he possessed years ago. And he's not very stout at the point of attack to play in the middle. And he'd be a coverage liability regardless of the spot he played in. He's essentially a man without a position, and whether the team moves him outside or keeps him inside, it's going to create more problems than it fixes. Demorrio Williams however earns the majority of my spite. Brooking at least has the excuse that's he's old. Demorrio's? I guess that he's dumb. He's as gifted an athlete that I've seen at the position, but he takes poor angles, misses too many tackles, and just doesn't make any plays. Which is sad because he plays the "playmaker" position on the weakside traditionally in the 4-3 scheme. Right now, he's really an overglorified nickel linebacker if anything. The only two things he's contributed this year were two "gimme" interceptions on two terrible passes. Depth is average at best. Stephen Nicholas looked like he was playing at a level early on in the year that he could have replaced Williams by now. But injuries set him back. He might be able to fill in as a starter next year, but I haven't seen enough to think he would be anything more than a marginal upgrade over Williams. Tony Taylor and Marcus Wilkins have performed on special teams, but I'm not sure they are anything more than that. Taylor had a good camp, but I can't help think that he's overhyped because of his Georgia ties.

My Recommendation: Let Williams walk via free agency. This is a weak year for linebackers, so we probably wouldn't be able to replace him with another young upgrade. But I'd take my chances in the draft. Brooking probably should be cut, but it will be harder to replace him than Williams. We need someone more stout against the run in the middle, but also athletic and quick enough that he can stay on the field on passing downs (something Hartwell could not do). I'm willing to bite the bullet and start Nicholas next year. But we need to find a decent middle man in the draft which methinks will likely come in rounds three or four.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

My Assessment: I used to love DeAngelo Hall, but watching his progression over the past four years, I haven't seen enough to merit a big contract extension. He's actually gotten worse in run support, and although he makes a lot of big plays, they are infrequent and there are too many opportunities where he could have made a play that he does not. Not to mention, Hall's attitude can be a big negative at times. At the other corner, Chris Houston has shown some improvement as the season has wore on, but at this point he's just a quicker and stronger version of Jason Webster, as the frequency of his getting burnt isn't much less. But the Falcons do a poor job of protecting him as he lines up against top receivers a bit too much at this point in his career. Lewis Sanders as I expected was marginal. He can get by as a physical nickel cornerback, but that's only if he can use his size to get the jam, something that doesn't happen often. David Irons hasn't gotten much work on defense this year, which is a shame, since we need to know if he can be a decent nickel back down the road. But right now, in truth, the team has only one starter. Houston would be a nickel back on most NFL teams. Antoine Harris has gotten a lot of reps this year, but he's not a playmaker. He's really just a body that takes up space in the secondary. At safety, Chris Crocker started the season fairly well, but has been forced into too many coverage assignments as of late, something he is not suited for. If he can focus mostly on stopping the run, he's solid. Milloy had a rocky start this year, but has really stepped up his play the past few weeks, showing me that he's one of the few players that quit. Jimmy Williams showed something at the midpoint, but seemingly has dipped back into the doghouse somehow. I'm not too down on Williams, it is only his first year back at safety after a three-year layoff, but he needs to start to show something next year. I really think the Falcons have to look at him as run-stopping strong safety instead of a potential coverage free safety if they want to maximize his abilities. Unfortunately, Crocker is the same style of player (and at this point significantly better), meaining that getting a safety that can help in coverage remains a need.

My Recommendation: If a team offers it, I would trade Hall for a first round pick and not give it a second thought. Yes, he's one of our best players, but for the money he's likely to receive and the attitude he brings on the field (that has been more negative than positive as of late), he's not worth breaking the bank for. Otherwise, my recommendation is to let the new coach get a crack at him and see what he thinks before making a long-term decision about Hall's future. Whether Hall is traded or not, the Falcons should be very interested in the free agent market this spring. If Zimmer sticks around, then 29-year old Terrence Newman would be an obvious option at replacing/complementing Hall. Marcus Trufant and Drayton Florence are two other players I would look hard at. But frankly, if the Falcons are going to spend big money this off-season, it should be at this position and not involve DeAngelo Hall. I'd also look at using one of my early picks on a cornerback, particularly at the top of Round Two. At safety, this team needs to find a free safety that can cover. This likely will come in the draft, in the middle rounds. At this point, 2008 is likely Milloy's last year here, and I think Crocker or Williams can adequately replace him by then. Crocker should be resigned for that reason alone, just as insurance in case Williams doesn't progress between now and then. The rookie at safety can be a backup at first and hopefully be ready to start in 2009 or 2010.

SPECIAL TEAMS

My Assessment: The Falcons really need to try and address the kicker position long-term. The team is on the verge of wrapping up Michael Koenen (a restricted free agent) to a long-term deal, and should do the same at kicker. The fact that we have little chance of making a field goal beyond 43 yards is pathetic. And Jerry Rosburg needs to find a way to get some of these special teams guys to cut down on their penalties. Otherwise, I think we would have a pretty solid unit. Guys like Irons, McIntyre, Taylor, etc. make plays on special teams. Unfortunately, penalties neutralize almost everything we do that is positive. In the return game, Norwood doesn't belong on kickoffs. He's just a stopgap. Hopefully Jennings can show progress next summer and handle both spots like he was supposed to this year. But right now in the return game, we lack a reliable option there.

My Recommendation: We need to sign a kicker. Stopping being cheap and make an investment in that position. I'm thinking of pursuing a guy like Josh Brown. And if you still want to be frugal, then go out and sign two or three journeymen kickers and actually give them more than two days to earn a position in camp. Have a real competition, something the Falcons haven't had since the epic Arians-Feely battle of 2001. Koenen needs to be wrapped up long term as well. We also need to bring in a rookie or a cheap veteran that can push for time in the return game. Give Jennings some competition at the least. And if you have to go out and sign more players like Marcus Wilkins and Corey McIntyre to help improve those units.

SUMMARY

The Falcons have a lot of areas that need to be addressed, so it would be unreasonable to expect them to fix all their problems in just one off-season. But I think with a proper plan, this team can solve major issues at QB, RB, OT, MLB, CB, and K this off-season. And those are the positions I feel are the biggest needs and areas that really need to be secured for the future. There really is no reason to go out and spend huge amounts of money in free agency like the Bills and 49ers did last year. Look at the Bills, the main reason why their team has improved is because of two draft picks: Edwards and Lynch, not because of any big moves made in free agency. Focus on the draft, and don't spend too much on free agents. Frankly, I think with the way free agency has come the past few years, you tend to get much better value in the trade market. But of course, you have to be wary of giving up too many draft picks, which is something the Falcons need right now. But if you can get a guy that you already know is a top player and can immediately add a lot to your roster, then I think it might be worth using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to acquire him. But do your homework. The fact that a team is trading the player should be the first red flag.

Obviously a lot of the Falcons moves will be dependent on who is the next head coach. I don't have any real specific recommendations on that one other than hire a guy that you believe will be good at motivating. And the second criteria should be someone that has already compiled a short list of candidates that he wants to coordinate his offense and defense BEFORE he has even arrived at the interview. Preparation and organization are too key, yet underrated aspects of being an NFL head coach. Head coaches are also made and broken by their coordinators. The guy on the offensive side of the ball will be key since it will be he who has the potential to shape our rookie passer's future success.

Posted by Aaron at 4:46 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Okay, I talked about the skill positions yesterday, now it's on to my assessments and recommendations for both the offensive and defensive lines...

OFFENSIVE LINE

My Assessment: One of the benefits of all the injuries we've had this year was that we have been able to develop our depth and get some young guys some much needed reps. If injuries are to occur down the road, these same players should be better. But overall, this unit has too many guys that are too old or too young. And what shape this unit takes in the future will depend heavily on what blocking scheme the new coach/coordinator brings in. Petrino begun the transition to a power-oriented man scheme after several years as an "finesse" zone scheme. Right now, we're somewhere stuck in the middle between that transition, and the next coach will determine which side we veer towards.

If Weiner can bounce back from injury, could have another year or two left in him. I give Weiner some credit, he played left tackle for like the first time in almost a decade, and handled himself. In a zone scheme, he can move back to right tackle. If power is where we are headed, then perhaps the team can tinker with moving him inside to guard. But that will be dependent on if we can find a proper right tackle to replace him. I think we might have the answer(s) already on the roster. I think Renardo Foster might have a reasonably bright future at that position, considering he was mostly an afterthought as an undrafted rookie. In his brief appearance, I was impressed with his run blocking. Tyson Clabo has filled in well for Weiner, but I think he's better suited to play guard. I can envision Clabo and Foster being a pretty solid run blocking pair on the right side in the future. Quinn Ojinnaka has struggled at left tackle, but again like Foster he is playing out of position. He is better suited to play on the right side, but probably too would make a better inside player than outside tackle. Probably his ideal fit is as a utility reserve that can play more than one position in a pinch. Between these guys, I think we might have our potential long-term answer at right tackle and possibly right guard as well.

Left tackle is much less settled. Gandy is probably done without the injury, so you know with it it's a tall order for him to return. Age and salary now coupled with injury makes for a very bad mix. And right now, any viable replacement is not on this roster. The Falcons will need to find this player because unless we land a southpaw at quarterback this off-season (Mark Brunell?) this position is going to take a precedent that it hasn't seen since forever, probably since Mike Kenn joined the team.

Inside, I'm still hopeful for Blalock despite a very rocky rookie season. He has struggled mightily and has added little power in the ground game, and hasn't fared any better as a pass protector. He wouldn't be the first rookie to struggle in Year One and then bounce back in Years Two and Three, but he is going to need to show significant progress next season, or that dread "b word" is going to get thrown around. Hopefully, any scheme tweaking shouldn't really affect him. At Texas, he played in a primarily zone-blocking scheme.

At right guard, Kynan Forney hasn't been significantly better. But that's mainly because he's not a good fit for a power scheme. And if the Falcons decide to stay the course in terms of power blocking, it's time to forgo Forney. He's only got one year left on his contract, so cutting him this off-season won't be an issue as far as the cap is concerned. And replacing him shouldn't be a problem with Weiner, Clabo, or Ojinnaka potentially replacing him. Forney's fate it would seem is tied directly to the new head coach.

As far as depth is concerned, D'Anthony Batiste I guess has been okay. He's big, which is good, but I haven't seen much in these past two weeks to tell me he's got real potential as a building block. So far, the best I can say is maybe he makes a decent backup.

As for the rest: Pennington, Dahl, Leffew, Quarterman, and McCoy, short of them showing something significant in these final three games, I'm not going to put too much stock in them. They can all be brought to camp next summer and hope that they show something then.

At center, McClure is only valuable due to his experience. But if the team wants to continue to go with a power blocking unit, he's expendable. Wilkerson is just a stopgap as his backup, and neither he nor Datish look like really strong options to replace him. At least Datish has one thing going for him. As a rookie, McClure got hurt early in training camp, and then came back and by the midpoint his second season was the starting center. And has held it for seven seasons since. Perhaps lightning can strike twice.

To summarize, if we go power blocking, I think we are relatively set at left guard, right guard, and right tackle. If we go back to zone blocking, I think we are relatively set at those same positions, just throw in center as well.

My Recommendation: I recommend that we focus heavily on upgrading the left tackle position. As far as I'm concerned, we don't have anybody that can play that position on this roster at a level compliant with NFL standards. I'd also recommend not giving a free agent $50 million to fill this position, like other teams have spent on some not-so-great blockers the past two off-seasons. If you can get a guy relatively on the "cheap" (I know, when did $20 or $30 million become a bargain?) that fits whichever scheme, then target him. For a power-blocking scheme, I'm thinking about Flozell Adams or Jonas Jennings (if the 49ers release him), and for a zone scheme, Travelle Wharton. But more than likely, the team is going to need to use one of its first three picks on this position, and any veteran signed may just be a stopgap for a year or two. Jake Long (Michigan), Jeff Otah (Pittsburgh), and Chris Williams (Vanderbilt) are three players that I'm going to keep an extra eye on during the postseason workouts and all-star games. I'd also recommend the team signing a cheap free agent guard that can push for a starting position, in the same vein the did last year with Toniu Fonoti. Just to bring some competition to camp, particularly for Blalock. At center, drafting somebody won't be a high priority, but if there is a good player available at some point in the draft, don't pass on him. But McClure is okay for now and getting his "heir apparent" is not as immediate a need as getting a player that can play left tackle today.

DEFENSIVE LINE

My Assessment: Abraham has played very well this season. He's worn down seemingly at the end, but through 10 games had 7 sacks, which says a lot about his ability still being there. But he needs help. Jamaal Anderson as a pass rusher has been a disappointment. He's managed to make a few plays versus the run, which is about the only positive so far this year from him. No need to label him a bust by any means. Patrick Kerney didn't do much his first two years in the league. But Anderson does need to step it up next year if not these final three weeks as a pass rusher. Chauncey Davis has simply outplayed him, and it seems at this point the only reason why Anderson is still the starter is because the team wants to develop him, not because he's the better player. But the team needs to get more help from the left end position, particularly on third downs. At the very least, the team needs to be able to bring pressure on one down from both sides. In the middle, injuries have hurt us. Trey Lewis played well in his brief stint as a starter at the nose. Although I'm not ready to proclaim him yet as a great player, I do think if he is properly platooned he can be an effective starter. Which means the team needs to try and improve depth. Montavious Stanley is a guy that can be effective for 15-20 snaps a game, but beyond that he isn't very good. Tim Anderson has shown some things as a pass rusher, but he's not about to make people forget about Rod Coleman. And speaking of Coleman, where is he at? Do we blame injuries or age for his recent demise? Or is it a combination of both. The answer was always when he's healthy, he still is a very good player. But I'm not sure that's the case this year, even though he never probably was ever 100%. Jonathan Babineaux began the season well, but has tailed off in recent weeks. He looks like he can be a good situational guy, but not sure if he's ready to succeed Coleman as a starter anytime soon and be productive. This entire unit is one that has talent, but there are still too many question marks for the team to be satisfied with them. But the problem is that there are so many other areas that represent bigger question marks, this unit might have to take its place on the back burner.

In the chance we hire a coach/defensive coordinator that wants to make the conversation to the 3-4 scheme, I'd be very concerned with this position. At this point, nobody really fits that scheme. Abraham can move to linebacker and be effective, but he's no longer a young man, so he's not as quick as he used to be. Davis and Anderson look like they might be functional as ends in that scheme, but only if they add another 10-20 pounds to their frames. None of the tackles truly fit as nose tackles in that scheme, so they are depth at best. Basically, if the 3-4 is the way to go, then we really have nothing currently on the roster that is really worth working with. We'll have to start from scratch.

My Recommendation: If you're sitting at the top of round one, and one of the premier defensive linemen are sitting there, I would seriously consider taking them over a quarterback or any other position. I'm referring mostly to Chris Long (Virginia), Glenn Dorsey (LSU), or Vernon Gholston (Ohio State). Of course, I might be thinking differently by April, but these three players are potentially so good that immediately they might be the best player on this unit, including John Abraham. All three players have the potential to be the best players at their positions within a few years in the NFL. But otherwise, I would only look at the draft for depth. And I'd recommend that the we target depth in free agency. Think about adding a purely situational pass rusher to potentially offset Anderson if he doesn't make significant progress next year. If you can get a good replacement for him (perhaps by trading for Dewayne Robertson?), I would think about cutting Coleman. But that's a move I'd make only after we've secured someone better than Babineaux. We definitely need a playmaker at that position, and if there is one available in free agency that doesn't cost an arm and a leg, I'd think about making the move. And if we transition to a 3-4 scheme, then I say then we are going to have buy a brand new starting lineup, and hopefully find a decent nose tackle in the draft. Few 3-4 teams ever solve their nose tackle problems via free agency.

Next, I'll do the back seven: linebackers and defensive backs, and also the special teams.

Posted by Aaron at 8:50 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

At the beginning of February, when the 18-0 Patriots are taking on either the Cowboys or Packers in a much hyped Super Bowl XLII, the folks in Flowery Branch will instead be seated in a room full of coffee and donuts going over this year's roster and figuring who stays, who goes, and who is going to be coming to join this debacle.

This is my account on the input I would give if I was able to sit in that meeting. And some are saying there are still three games left to be played, but for the most part if I'm part of the Falcons brass, I've already seen enough to make an informed decision on most of this roster, particularly with many of the long-time veterans. It's the untested "Petrino-ites" (guys that have only joined the team in the past year) that are still somewhat a question mark: Redman, Snelling, some of the O-linemen, Jamaal Anderson, David Irons, Tony Taylor, etc. Honestly DeAngelo Hall could have 6 picks in these final 3 games, and it really wouldn't do much to change my opinion of him (which is not very flattering).

So here's the first part, and I'm going to do this in some installments to reduce the length:

QUARTERBACK

My Assessment: Between Redman, Harrington, and Leftwich I see three No. 2s at best. I have no problem if one of these guys was the No. 2 for next year, but as starters they aren't much. Sure, if I could put a Top 5 defense, Top 10 offensive line, and above average running game with them, they are all probably good enough to get this team a wildcard berth. But that's probably true of every NFL quarterback (or at least should be). And the Falcons are a ways from that. And even if building that type of "supporting cast" is the goal, then why waste it on one of these guys? Why not give it to a promising young passer like a Matt Ryan or Brian Brohm? As for D.J. Shockley, he's another body, but at least is a body that hasn't been tainted by this season. So he at least deserves a shot to earn the No. 3 job next summer.

My Recommendation: Keep one of the above three. Whoever best fits the new coach's offense, otherwise whichever one is probably going to be the cheapest (most likely Redman). Sign another veteran that can at least make a training camp battle for the starting position somewhat interesting. The options on the open market are likely to be somewhat limited, so in my head I'm thinking a washed up Steve McNair. Then use a first round pick on one of the top QBs in this class, and just hope the football gods smile upon us next season.

RUNNING BACK

My Assessment: Dunn is "done." I like Dunn. Great person, and for most of his career has been an underappreciated and solid football player. But he should not longer be in this team's plans. Jerious Norwood over the course of this season has shown he can do pretty much everything Dunn does on the field, and does it better. Norwood is not an everydown back. Get him 10-15 touches a game, both as a runner and receiver in the style of Reggie Bush or Brian Westbrook and you have a weapon. Beyond that, he just lacks the durability. We need a physical back that can pound out the clock and run between the tackles. Jason Snelling is not going to be that guy. He might have a semi-successful future as a short-yardage guy. He's your classic guy that you send to Europe for a spring to develop him further. Oops, that league is no more, so I guess that bodes ill for him. For fullback, Mughelli is overpaid, but we at least can still eke some value out of him as a lead blocker and occasional runner/receiver. McIntyre is a solid backup, but nothing more.

My Recommendation: Cut Dunn. I'm sorry Arthur, but he's going to have to go sometime. And sign a "thunder" to Norwood's "lightning." I say Jamal Lewis. INstead of spending way too much money on an overrated guy like Michael Turner, Lewis fits exactly what we need in the position. He'll be our "Deuce" while Norwood is our "Bush" (and I'm thinking strictly of the '06 Saints, not this '07 version). Not to mention he has a solid rapport with Ovie already. Also if you can draft another back in the draft, don't hesitate to do it since Lewis is just a one or two-year stopgap.

WIDE RECEIVER

My Assessment: Although Roddy White isn't quite to the level of Braylon Edwards, I'm happy with him. He just needs to be more consistent and more explosive, and only that can come from within. Michael Jenkins on his good days is a lot like a younger Finneran was on his good days. Use his size to move the chains on third down. Horn looks old, slow, and soft. 'Tis a shame really. Robinson has played looked like a rookie too many times, but I think he has a good future as a No. 3 at the very least. Jennings might have an impact as an explosive slot guy, but he still has a ways to go before he earns significant minutes. If at all possible, we need a No. 1 receiver that puts the fear of God into opposing DBs and coordinators. White doesn't do that. We can get by with Roddy being Roddy at this point, but we'll never have a potent passing attack unless he makes significant improvements or that playmaker is acquired.

My Recommendation: Don't do anything. If there is a good receiver that drops in the draft, take him. Otherwise, this is a position where I'll use the draft for depth. Obviously, any potential scheme change is going to play a factor, but these guys should fit the majority of schemes outside a traditional West Coast Offense.

TIGHT END

My Assessment: Crumpler is old. His hands aren't what they used to be, and because of excess weight and too many joint injuries, he cannot consistently get separation from opponents. Algernon should look in the mirror to discover the real reason why he's become an afterthought. He can still be a productive guy that can catch 40-50 passes in a year, but he's not explosive and unlikely to create very many big plays. Depth is capable with Blakley and Milner. If you could combine those two they'd make a decent starter, since Blakley has pretty good hands and Milner has shown things as a starter. But even in combined form, "Blakner" wouldn't be as good as Crumpler is now. If we change to an offense that likes to spread out defenses and throw the ball down the field, then I would say we lack the proper tight end to run that.

My Recommendation: Ideally, we could walk away from the first few rounds of the draft with a young tight end that can stretch the field. But that is dependent on if the scheme calls for it. I would shy away from big money free agents like Dallas Clark and L.J. Smith even if they fit the scheme. I'll probably re-sign Blakley, and if a decent player slips into the middle rounds that I think is better than "Blakner" I might take him.

Next up the trenches: offensive and defensive lines...

Posted by Aaron at 10:01 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The first 3 quarters were almost impossible to watch again but the last quarter made it worth it. It wasn't a win but I believe we got a glimpse of what this offense is truly capable of. In hindsight, perhaps going for it on 4th and 7 at the 9 wasn't the right decision and should have opted for a FG instead but it's really hard to say because field position would have changed, the INT might not have happened, etc. At any rate,

Here's what I saw:

Offense:

Running game: Dunn (10/17), Norwood (8/94). Effective Runs (4 yards or more)-Dunn, 2 and Norwood, 4. Dunn also had 1 catch for 23 yards, and Norwood had 3 catches for 21 yards. Norwood was clearly the more effective back this week and got almost equal carries.

Breakdown of passes:

Harrington: 17/34, 184 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Breakdown of incompletions: 10 Bad passes, 2 Dropped passes, 5 Defended passes. Not effective at all.

Redman: 16/24, 172 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Breakdown of incompletions: 5 Bad passes, 1 Throw away and 2 Defended passes. The offense was drastically more effective with Redman.

Drops (2): Jenkins, 1; White, 1. Both balls could have been thrown better as they were high from Harrington but they were definitely catchable.

YTD Drops (36):

Jenkins 8
White 9
Crumpler 5
Horn 3
Dunn 6
Norwood 1
Blakley 1
Robinson 3

Run blocking: Not a very good job. A lot of Norwood's yards were made by his speed and not gaping holes.

Pass blocking: The unit did okay. It's about the best we can hope for at this point.

Sack responsibility (4): First one is on McClure who got ran by. Second was on Blalock. Third one was on Harrington for not picking up the blitz. Final sack was on Batiste.

YTD Sacks (38):

Scheme 2.0
Norwood 2.5
Gandy 1.0
Forney 3.0
Harrington 8.5
Weiner 1.5
Blalock 8.0
McClure 3.5
Dunn 1.0
Foster 1.0
Clabo 2.0
Ojinnaka 3.0
Batiste 1.0

Note: QB responsible sacks are those that he has at least 3 seconds and either chose to try to scramble or stayed in the pocket when the better decision would be to throw it away. Also includes those rushing attempts that go for 0 or negative yardage that for some reason are counted as a sack.


Defense:

Run defense: Was very stout except for the 50 yard gashing at the end.

Pass Defense: Got picked on early and often but did pick it up in the second half. Very little pressure from the d-line didn't help.

Sacks: Davis got the only sack.

Special Teams:
Norwood had 3 kickoff returns and 1 touchback: 1. from the 7, 15 yards; 2. from the 5, 19 yards; 3. from the 5, 32 yards.

Mughelli had 1 kickoff return for 10 yards from the 36 on a squib quick.

Jennings had 5 returns: 1. from the 16, 4 yards; 2. from the 29, 13 yards; 3. from the 23, 77 yards for TD (nullified by illegal block on Nicholas); 4. from the 23, 12 yards; 5. from the 42, 6 yards. The illegal block call as very, very iffy. Solid day returning.

Koenen had 7 punts: 1-48 yards to the STL 5, no return. 2-46 yards to the STL 29, no return. 3-34 yards to STL 12, no return. 4-55 yards to the end zone, touchback; 5-50 yards to the end zone, touchback; 6-26 yards to the STL 12, no return; 7-50 yards to the STL 23, 6 yard return. Excellent day punting.

Kickoffs: Koenen had 4 kickoffs: 1. to the -2, 37 yard return (nullified on holding penalty); 2. to the -1, 15 yard return; 3. to the 2, 15 yard return; 4. to the 4, 19 yard return. Very good distance.

Field Goals: Andersen 1/1, from 41.

Special Teams coverage: Outstanding. Tony Taylor had 2 very nice tackles.

Things that really need improvement:

1. Eliminate negative yardage plays (penalties, negative rushes, and sacks).
2. O-line needs to get more push, reach the second level and put defensive players on their backs.
3. Time Management

Offensive MVP: Chris Redman (16/24, 172, 2 TDS/1 INT) and Roddy White, (10 catches, 146 yards, 1 TD)

Defensive MVP: Lawyer Milloy (5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 pass defended, 1 QB hurry)

Special Teams MVP: Michael Koenen.

Goat of the Week: Joey Harrington

Let me know your thoughts and questions otherwise:

Next up: VS New Orleans Saints, December 10th!

Posted by Cappy at 8:56 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

We saw on Sunday against the Rams how experience in an offense can make up for a lack of talent. I'm referring not to Chris Redman, but Gus Frerotte. Unfortunately, we can't wait another two or so years for one of our current passers to be proficient in Petrino's offense like Frerotte is in Linehan's.

I guess my one hope can be that Redman can turn things around in the coming weeks, but I'm not hopeful. Looking good for one quarter does not equate to four quarters. And his success might be due to the Rams not being properly prepared for him. I don't think we can expect a similar issue to arise in the coming weeks against the Saints, Bucs, etc. Or perhaps I can hope that being benched for what seems like the thirteenth time works a charm on Joey Harrington.

But anyway, my eye is more on what will happen next year as opposed to this year. It seems clear to me that at least one of our quarterbacks currently on our roster will not remain with the team next year. And if I had to guess based on what's happened thus far, my guess would be Leftwich.

Both Leftwich and Harrington will count more than $3 million each against our 2008 salary cap. So it's likely one will stay and the other will go. Chris Redman is a free agent after this season. If he plays well enough the rest of the way, he might force both Harrington and Leftwich to go.

A foreseeable scenario in my mind is to have only one of these guys retained by the team after the season (likely Redman or Harrington). And if he's released by the Redskins, I think this team would make a push for Mark Brunell. He's familiar with both Petrino and Bill Musgrave from his days in Jacksonville and Washington, respectively. At the very least, he can potentially push whichever holdover is retained for the starting job.

And then I fully expect the Falcons to use a high pick on a quarterback in next spring's draft. More than likely it's going to be their No. 1 pick. Which quarterback that is, we have an entire off-season to debate, so I won't get into that now.

And then we'll have D.J. Shockley buried on the depth chart. Unlike most Bulldog fans, I have little expectations for Shockley, and I suspect he'll just be a camp body at best next summer.

Obviously, our quarterback situation won't be much better for 2008 with a rookie and/or Mark Brunell being our best hope for salvation. But that's the way I think the cookie will crumble.

I'm sure many Falcon fans will hope the team goes out and tries their hand at a better veteran option than Brunell. But I don't foresee it. Free agency only offers Rex Grossman or Daunte Culpepper, neither of whom at this point would be significantly better than Brunell. Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb, and Steve McNair may all be released or traded. All would be upgrades over Brunell, but by how much? Pennington is purely a West Coast QB, so he's a poor fit here. McNabb's or the Eagles's asking price will likely be too step for the Falcons to reasonably pursue him, and McNair looks just about spent.

People have thrown around Derek Anderson's name, but according to the most recent sources, the Browns have no intention of trading him. Frankly, if it's a trade the Falcons want, probably the best option would be Chris Simms, but that is assuming he's healthy and the Bucs are willing to trade him to a division rival for a late round pick. Something that seems unlikely at this point.

At this point, our saving grace at this position will be our TBD Rookie in perhaps three or four years time. Until then the mess will remain.

Posted by Aaron at 2:03 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Okay, so the Falcons are 3-9 and just have one month to go until the end of the season. Hopefully they can get their act together and pull out one or two more victories before this thing is done.

OFFENSE

Quarterback - Harrington and Leftwich did nothing over the past three weeks, and now Chris Redman with his surprisingly good performance in the fourth quarter against the Rams has a legit chance of starting the remainder of the season. Frankly, I don't have high hopes for Redman being able to outplay either the reason of the way. GRADE: D+

Running Back - Dunn continues to be hot and cold, and mostly cold. Norwood has continued to be underused by this offense. He's not the guy that can carry the load, but he should definitely be getting more reps than Dunn the rest of the way. GRADE: C

Receivers - White has had some big games the past two weeks and is firmly on pace to be the team's first 1000-yard receiver since 1999. And at his current pace his projected 1227 yards will almost exceed any total produced by a Falcon receiver during their Run N' Shoot Era, with the 1242 yards by Andre Rison in 1993 being the lone exception. Horn, Jenkins, and Robinson have been pretty decent, although their ability to make plays have been sporadic. Robinson has struggled with holding onto the ball in recent weeks. GRADE: B+

Offensive Line - Considering all the injuries, this unit is not all bad. BUt they are unable to open holes up the middle and pass protection has been iffy at best. The one real bright spot about this unit is that with all the young guys playing this year, it should make depth pretty good for next season. GRADE: C-

Offensive MVP: Roddy White
Runners Up: Jerious Norwood

Overview - This team is still struggling to score points. Before it seemed that they were often coming up empty in the red zone, but as of late it seems that they are even struggling to find the red zone. Outside of White and Norwood, nothing is really positive here. GRADE: D+

DEFENSE

Defensive Line - Injuries have hurt them at tackle in recent weeks, but Babineaux and Stanley are getting by. Abraham isn't quite the force he was early in the year off the edge, but still is able to get some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It's a good thing, because Jamaal Anderson has barely sniffed quarterbacks. It's a wonder why he hasn't been benched since Chauncey Davis has vastly outperformed him throughout this season. GRADE: C+

Linebackers - Outside of Boley, this position is questionable. Brooking has been sporadic at best, and Williams has been almost invinsible in terms of making plays for most of this season. Boley has basically functioned as a one-man wrecking crew at this position, making tackles and stops where the other two should be. It's obvious that both players will need to be replaced very soon. GRADE: B-

Secondary - Houston has shown some positive things over the last month or so, but he was also shown against the Rams why Holt and Bruce are potential Hall of Famers even at their current ages. The nickel has been an issue whether it's Crocker or Sanders lining up there. Crocker has been forced to play more coverage than he should, and it has reaped the expected negative results as it did a year ago. Milloy's play has picked up immeasurably since the bye, and Hall has been having his best year. But even still, those two cannot cover up the mistakes made by the rest of the group who are clearly outmatched. GRADE: B-

Defensive MVP: Michael Boley
Runners Up: John Abraham, DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy

Overview - The defense has been mostly good considering the offense that they are forced to work with. But this unit has not been as strong in recent weeks as it was earlier in the season. Basically they are going to give up 20 or so points a game, which wouldn't be too bad, but unfortunately our offense is only capable of putting up 14-17 points in a given week. GRADE: B-

Special Teams - Jennings and Norwood have improved as the season has wore on in terms of their return abilities, and Koenen and Andersen have had no issues for several weeks. But penalties and poor discipline have killed this unit. There's been some questionable calls, but for the most part this unit has brought its troubles on itself. GRADE: C+

Coaching - Dull and conservative play-calling has been a problem, and it's been counter-acted with some overly aggressive play-calling at the wrong time. Managing the clock has also been an issue with Petrino. However, the team continues to play hard and remain competitive late in games for the most part, so that remains a big positive. GRADE: B-

Rookies - Milner and Lewis have joined Datish on injured reserve. Irons and Stone have contributed on special teams, but both have had their fair share of rookie mistakes or at least some close calls while there. Nicholas probably should be starting instead of Williams (he can't be any less a non-factor!), but injuries have hurt his progress as of late. Blalock has improved somewhat in recent weeks, but still is far from good. Anderson's lack of burst and quickness is becoming more tiresome as the season wears on. Houston has played okay for an overmatched rookie. You could say the same about Robinson, but he probably shouldn't be getting the workload that he is receiving. There is some hope that Snelling might provide a teensy bit of a spark over these final weeks, but Petrino first has to play him.

Rookie MVP: Chris Houston (only because of Lewis's injury).

Final Quarter Outlook - The Falcons looked like they were building some momentum at midseason, but have squandered it since. The hope is that they can basically pull some upsets these final four weeks. All are games that they should lose since the Saints, Bucs, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all better teams. But this team is capable of beating all of these teams. It'll just take them coming together and playing as a complete team for like the first time in forever. Pulling out two wins in December will do wonders to build some momentum for next season.

Posted by Aaron at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

This one started out good (despite a 3/9 start by Harrington) but two missed opportunities in the end zone followed by an offense stuck in stall and the Colts offense getting on track ended up killing us. As for the running into the punter call, I don't like it but technically that's the rule.

Here's what I saw:

Offense:

Running game: Dunn (17/70), Snelling (4/6), Norwood (6/33), Mughelli (1/0) and Harrington (2/3). Effective Runs (4 yards or more)-Dunn, 9; Snelling, 0 (but did convert two 4th and 1's) and Norwood, 3. Dunn also had 2 catches for 10 yards, Norwood and Mughelli each had 1 catch for 9 yards.

Breakdown of passes:

Harrington: 14/30, 155 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. Breakdown of incompletions: 10 Bad passes, 4 Dropped passes, 1 Defended pass and 1 Throw away. Not anywhere near good enough.

Drops (4): Crump, 2; Robinson, 1 (although I don't really blame him as he got rocked); and White, 1 (although it should have been defensive holding since Jackson had a handful of jersey).

YTD Drops (34):

Jenkins 7
White 8
Crumpler 5
Horn 3
Dunn 6
Norwood 1
Blakley 1
Robinson 3

Run blocking: This area has gotten better it seems and not a bad effort in this game.

Pass blocking: The Colts were very limited due to injuries and this area was passable.

Sack responsibility (2): First one is on Harrington for holding the ball too long and the second is split between Clabo and McClure who got "turtled" (put flat on his back looking like a turtle teetering in his shell).

YTD Sacks (34):

Scheme 2.0
Norwood 2.5
Gandy 1.0
Forney 3.0
Harrington 7.5
Weiner 1.5
Blalock 7.0
McClure 2.5
Dunn 1.0
Foster 1.0
Clabo 2.0
Ojinnaka 3.0

Note: QB responsible sacks are those that he has at least 3 seconds and either chose to try to scramble or stayed in the pocket when the better decision would be to throw it away. Also includes those rushing attempts that go for 0 or negative yardage that for some reason are counted as a sack.


Defense:

Run defense: Allowed over 4 yards a carry in both halves. Not very strong at the point of attack.

Pass Defense: Started off well but got picked apart by Manning.

Sacks: Boley got 3 and Brooking got 1.

Special Teams:
Norwood had 6 kickoff returns and no touchbacks: 1. from the -2, 23 yards; 2. from the 7, 37 yards; 3. from the 1, 28 yards; 4. from the 1, 20 yards; 5. from the -3, 26 yards; 6. from the 1, 27 yards (negated by Wilkerson holding penalty).

Jennings had 2 fair catches and 1 11 yard return wiped out by the running into the kicker penalty. No real opportunity to do anything.

Koenen had 4 punts: 1-47 yards to the IND 45, 12 yard return. 2-51 yards to the IND 32, 8 yard return. 3-52 yards to IND 37, 9 yard return. 4-50 yards to the IND 13, fair catch. Great distance.

Kickoffs: Koenen had 4 kickoffs: 1. to the 0, 24 yard return; 2. to the -1, 25 yard return; 3. to the 3, 25 yard return; 4. to the 2, 28 yard return. Solid day.

Field Goals: Andersen 2/2, from 30 and 34.

Special Teams coverage: Fairly solid.

Things that really need improvement:

1. Eliminate negative yardage plays (penalties, negative rushes, and sacks).
2. O-line needs to get more push, reach the second level and put defensive players on their backs.
3. Get healthy.

Offensive MVP: Roddy White, (6 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD)

Defensive MVP: Michael Boley (9 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 QB hurries, 1 fumble forced and a special teams tackle)

Special Teams MVP: Tony Taylor and David Irons (2 tackles).

Goat of the Week: Joey Harrington

Let me know your thoughts and questions otherwise:

Next up: AT St. Louis Rams, December 2nd!

Posted by Cappy at 8:52 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post