FalcBlog

For those interested, Vick currently ranks 16th among active quarterbacks in terms of regular season record a starter. That takes into account only players that have started at least 16 regular season games. And Vick's postseason record is better than 5 of those games.

And all 10 of the other quarterbacks that surpass Vick have taken a team and led them to at least one Super Bowl appearance.

I'm not making a judgment, just letting the stats speak for themselves. But since this is a blog, an opinion has to come in somewhere. So here goes:

If someone were to approach me and say that Vick is the best QB in the league never to have played in a Super Bowl, I don't think I could really disagree. I'm sure others would point to Marc Bulger, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, or Drew Brees. All have won at least 54% of their regular season games and at least 1 playoff game. Vick has a better postseason record than all 4 of those players, but both Bulger and Pennington have better regular season records.

I'm not making that claim right now, but if someone were to do so, it would be something worth arguing. Considering that Vick hasn't had the talent around him at certain positions that those others have had. Not saying that Crumpler, Dunn, and others are chopped liver or that those others haven't played behind bad offensive lines (all except Brees have). But just saying that if someone claimed that Vick has done more with less, it would be hard for me to argue against that.

Where Vick ranks among the entire 16, I'm not so sure. But there are those among that group : Philip Rivers, Jay Fiedler, Brad Johnson, and Kurt Warner that I personally would not rank ahead of Vick. And I'm sure there are others that would strongly dispute whether Rex Grossman, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck, Bulger, and Pennington deserve to be ahead of Vick.

But it's all relatively meaningless where I or others rank him. He can certainly silence all of his detractors by winning a Super Bowl. I myself will shut up if he simply loses a Super Bowl. But if or when he manages to join the elite club that only 26 quarterbacks belong to, he'll be able to proclaim himself No. 1.

Posted by Aaron at 3:15 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

With all the Calvin Johnson-to-Atlanta buzz that has intensified this past week, why am I not as excited as I should be to get possibly the greatest receiving prospect to ever come out, and the consensus No. 1 player in the draft?

I'm sure it has everything to do with Michael Vick, and little else. I'm a believer that the QB makes the WRs, not the other way around. I won't deny that having a great receiver certainly helps, but the great QBs can build up WRs of average talent. A good case is what John Elway did with two journeymen receivers in Denver in Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith. When his career is over, Smith is going to be a Hall of Fame candidate. Not bad for an undrafted receiver. Now, obviously Smith himself had a lot to do with that, but I don't think Rod Smith would be where he is today, if it had been Brian Griese or Hugh Millen as the Broncos QB when he started out.

I'm not trying to bash Vick, just saying that his record of working with receivers is not too exemplary. Case in point, last year at this time we had been hearing for weeks how Vick was working so hard on building up his relationship and rapport with Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, and how both were poised for breakout years. Well, any such rapport that had been built in the off-season, evaporated very quickly once the regular season began. The drops certainly had a lot to do with that. But I think if the rapport had been as strong as the Falcons P.R. people had led us to believe, those drops wouldn't have occurred, or at least would have been dramatically less.

Jenkins basically admitted as much not too long ago about how difficult it was playing with a passer like Vick because you don't know what's going to happen. If having a good rapport with your QB means being on the same page, then Jenkins is suggesting that the rapport is weak.

It remains to be seen if Vick can build a strong relationship with Johnson. He has done so with Finneran and Crumpler, but I'm sure it helped that when Vick took the field as a Falcon for the first time in practice way back in 2001, Finneran and Crumpler were probably the first two players he threw to since all three were second stringers back then. All those that have followed, just haven't been able to get access in that seemingly exclusive club of receivers Vick trusts: Willie Jackson, Jenkins, White, Peerless Price, Dez White, etc.

Will Johnson be different? If talent was the only thing that had to do with it, then certainly he would. But it takes more than talent.

If the Falcons do ship their three top picks in the draft to move up and get Johnson, I can't really complain. He is the best player in the draft. But considering the $28-30 million we are going to have to guarantee in his contract, and that Atlanta doesn't seem like the ideal place for a young receiver to develop, I'll be far from ecstatic.

If the Falcons passing game shows significant improvement this year, then it will probably have less to do with the relationship between Vick and Johnson, and more to do with the one between Vick and Petrino.

Posted by Aaron at 8:22 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I still think the NFC South is the best division in the league. Sure, the results of '06 were less than spectacular, but no other division in the league can say that they've sent a team to the conference championship every year since realignment.

The 2005 Bucs were the only team to win the division that didn't make it that far. But I'll disregard them because the '05 Panthers had the same record, and only lost in the tie-breaker because the Saints beat them in the opening week on an emotional high following Katrina. And of course the Panthers lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game.

Also another reason why I like the NFC South is because no division winner has repeated. In fact, no division winner from the previous year has had a winning season the following year. The best record by a division winner was 8-8 by the 2005 Falcons after winning the division in 2004.

That lack of consistency most would view as a negative, but I view it as a positive. The fact that no team dominates the division, means that each year the race is actually interesting. If one team could be said to "dominate" the division it would be the Carolina Panthers, who post the best divisional record at 18-12 since the division's inception in 2002. The Falcons are exactly .500 at 15-15, the Saints are 14-16, and the Bucs are 13-17.

And although the Panthers are ahead as far as divisional games go, all 4 teams are nearly identical in records outside the division: Panthers and Bucs both are 26-24, Falcons are 25-24-1, and the Saints are 24-26.

And the most interesting factoid may be that each division winner (excluding 2002) had a losing season the previous year. Which means that based off that, either the Falcons or Bucs are going to win the South this year. Which then means it's likely that one of those teams will make it to the NFC Championship this year.

And although I doubt any major experts would agree with that, I do. The Bucs were not a bad team despite their 4-12 record. A few less injuries and some of their stars playing a lot better and you still have a team capable of making it to the playoffs. And of course, the potential to land Calvin Johnson this week won't hurt their chances.

The Falcons are a team I think can and will make the playoffs this year. I'd be very disappointed if the Falcons don't win at least 9 games, and given how the NFC has been the past few years, 9 games is quite enough to earn a chance to play in January.

I like our chances. I suspect we'll play a lot better this year, if for no other reason that we have a new coach and we should be riding that new energy, such as we did in 2004 when Mora first came to town.

In my eyes, the biggest task for Bobby Petrino is not winning this year but rather sustaining it. As we all know the Falcons never had winning seasons in consecutive years since their inception. Well, not so coincidentally, neither has any of the other NFC South teams since the division was created. Perhaps Sean Payton will become the first. Personally, I'm rooting for Petrino.

Posted by Aaron at 12:38 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Okay, I just want to weigh in on one aspect of the draft that does not deal with the Falcons. It specifically deals with the Oakland Raiders and who they select with the first overall pick this year, assuming they don't trade down.

I've been tuning into ESPN a lot these past few weeks, watching their SportsCenter Specials and NFL Live, which deal almost exclusively with the upcoming draft. Why? First off, I'm a huge draftnik, have been for the past 7 years, and also because I live in North Carolina, so no NFL Network, which means all my televised NFL news must come via ESPN.

But anyway, the prevailing sentiment among the "experts" at ESPN are that the Raiders must take a QB (i.e. JaMarcus Russell) with the No. 1 pick, because of that need. But frankly, I disagree.

Why? Mainly because of money. Whomever is the No. 1 overall pick will be the 3rd highest paid player in NFL history by my accounts. Mario Williams received $26.5 million guaranteed last year as the No. 1 choice. From what I know only Peyton Manning ($34 million in bonuses) and Michael Vick ($37 million) have banked more than that in terms of the guaranteed part of their deals. Although I believe technically Manning and Vick's bonuses weren't guaranteed, but instead were more like "99% assured." But if there is a 10% increase from Williams's monster contract, that means Russell or whoever the Raiders choose could be banking in excess of $29 million. The Falcons gave out a total of $16.5 million in bonus money to its chief off-season additions of Horn, Mughelli, Harrington, Sanders, and Wilkins this year. So it's roughly the equivalent of two off-seasons worth of moves.

But anyway, considering that draft history clearly shows us that drafting 1st round QBs is a 50/50 proclamation at best, why should the Raiders be so quick to throw so much money at another one? The Raiders other choice seems to be everybody's No. 1 player, Calvin Johnson. Of course I realize that drafting wide receivers is about as successful if not significantly less than drafting a quarterback. But still I'm scratching my head.

Unless you're absolutely sure that JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn is going to be an outstanding pro, why spend so much money on them? When we're talking about the money that is going to be paid to such players nowadays without ever playing a down in the NFL, rather than drafting for need, how bout you take the player that you are most confident won't suck?

I mean people crucified the Texans for passing on the talent in Reggie Bush last year, and going for need with Mario Williams. So why should the Raiders do the exact same thing this year?

I realize that if the Raiders want to find a franchise QB capable of leading that team back to glory, they will likely have to spend a first round pick on one. But I just think you have to be meticulous on whether you believe that player is Russell or any other passer in this draft. Fact is, if you make the right pick, you can reap the ultimate dividends. If you make the wrong one, you're going to be in the exact same situation 4 or 5 years later (see Detroit Lions). And basically for the Raiders, that will be a more expensive mistake than any other team has made to date.

If I was the NFL ownership, next time the CBA is set to be renegotiated (2011?), I would try to install a slotted salary system for incoming rookies, much like the NBA has. These bonuses are getting out of hand. My solution would be to have the No. 1 overall pick have a maximum non-negotiable signing bonus of 10% of whatever the salary cap is. So if the salary cap is $120 million for that year, the No. 1 pick will automatically pocket $12 million. And then decide certain increments thereafter for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and so on picks. In my eyes, this is a genius solution for these reasons:

1) It nearly eliminates rookie holdouts. Teams, agents, and players know what a player is going to get, because there is less maneuvering in the finite amounts of bonuses a rookie can receive.
2) The owners certainly will agree to this because they won't have to pay $30+ million to unproven players anymore.
3) The NFLPA should agree to this since with less money being tied up by rookies, that's more money potentially going into the pockets of the veterans, who are the main constituency of the union.
4) This helps teams because if you draft a bust, it won't be as crippling to your team for years and years if you only pay him $15 million as opposed to double that.

Posted by Aaron at 12:09 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The draft is just a week away, and I'll post my Top 20 draft board, that if and when the Falcons pick, whomever ranks the highest on this board would be my pick.

1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
2. LaRon Landry, FS, LSU
3. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
4. Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
5. Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
6. Reggie Nelson, FS, Florida
7. Alan Branch, NT, Michigan
8. Patrick Willis, MLB, Ole Miss
9. Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
10. Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
11. Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
12. Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
13. Adam Carriker, DE/DT, Nebraska
14. Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
15. Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
16. Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
17. Justin Blalock, OG/OT, Texas
18. Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
19. Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
20. Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan

Okay, I have Johnson No. 1, not because I think the Falcons should go up and get him, but frankly if he was available to pick, I don't think I could justify passing on him. Landry is No. 2 because I have a completely heterosexual football crush on Brian Dawkins, in that I love the way he plays the game, and if Landry can be that player, I will love him too.

Peterson is No. 3, followed by Thomas, Adams, and Nelson. Branch is 7th despite the injury concerns because obviously I'm not a doctor and don't have access to his medical records, so thus I have to judge it as if he is 100%. Followed by Willis. I think the Top 8 are my "can't miss" prospects. I'm sure 1 or 2 won't develop quite as well as hoped, but all IMO are so talented that they are more than worth the risk. Okoye, Lynch, Hall, Carriker, and Revis, there isn't a lot of differentiation between them, but all I think can be studs. I'm sure 5 years from now, at least 1 will be a Pro Bowler considered at the top of his position, while the others will be quality NFL players. I'm just not sure each have the star potential that the Top 8 have. Any of those first 13, I wouldn't have a problem taking in the Top 15. The rest of the group, I think if you want them, you trade down a bit more.

And you'll notice no Levi Brown. That's because I believe he's perhaps the most overrated player in this draft. He's not a Top 10 pick, he's not a Top 20 pick. He's a late first round OT at best that is benefitting from a relatively average class at that position. I see way too much Mike Williams in him to merit a high pick.

And of course, neither of the top 2 QBs appear on this list. 1) Because of Vick and 2) because neither impress me to a degree that I would spurn Vick for them, despite my conflicted and generally negative feelings on Vick.

Posted by Aaron at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Okay, on to the second game, against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags finished a disappointing 8-8 in 2006 after a 12-4 season in 2005. Talk about expectations. Last year was the year they were expected to challenge the Colts for AFC South supremacy, but instead they lost to the Texans twice. This will be another road game for the Falcons. The Jaguars 6-2 at home last year, and have been strong at home under Del Rio, winning 21 of 32 games. So they have a home field advantage.

Offense: Their offense should get a nice kikc in the pants with Dirk Koetter taking over. Or at least that's what they hope. He's the third offensive coordinator to helm the team under Del Rio, and it'll be interesting to see what sort of impact he can have. Obviously, their issues start at quarterback with Leftwich. When he's healthy, he's generally been good. Problem is, he hasn't been healthy very much. Garrard is one of the better backups in the league, going 9-7 as a starter in his last 16 starts, but he doesn't really blow you away and isn't what most would consider a true franchise quarterback. Their running game is strong however with a good duo in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. They will have Greg Jones added to the mix this year, which means that they have everything you look for at that positions: speed, power, etc. Their wide receivers have struggled, but they have talent and they are hopeful that Koetter's offense will bring out the best in them. If Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Ernest Wilford could be combined into one player, perhaps they would be very good, but each is too inconsistent to really be considered a strong unit. They will utilize more twins sets this year, and added Jermaine Wiggins to join George Wrighster and Marcedes Lewis at tight end. If Lewis lives up to his potential, which he did not last year as a rookie, it gives them the best corps of tight ends in the league. Their offensive line is good. They have shuffled it around, but it pretty much guarantees that the best five will be on the field. Maurice Williams is moving to left tackle to challenge Khalif Barnes, since Tony Pashos gives them a stronger run blocker at right tackle. Vince Manuwai is emerging as a premier guard in the NFL, while Brad Meester and Chris Naeole are solid.

Defense: This unit was dominant in certain games, and iffy in others. But finished 4th in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense last year. Their front four is arguably the best with Reggie Hayward coming off injury. Stroud and Henderson are the league's best pair of tackles, and McCrary emerged last year as a double-digit sack guy. Their linebackers are top with Peterson, Daryl Smith, and Clint Ingram. At cornerback, Rashean Mathis is one of the best in the league, arguably in the top five. Brian Williams is a serviceable No. 2 guy. Safety is the only major concern here with Deon Grant leaving via free agency. Gerald Sensabaugh and Donovan Darius will man this spot, Sensabaugh isn't an ideal free safety and Darius is getting up in age. That is the biggest weakness to potentailly exploit this year, the deep ball.

Off-season: The additions of Pashos, Dennis Northcutt, and Wiggins were the biggest they made. Their only losses were Kyle Brady and Grant. Wiggins offsets Brady's departure, but Kevin McCadam won't make up for Deon Grant. They're a team that has kept relatively low-key this off-season besides spending big money on Pashos in the opening weekend.

Draft: I suspect despite their issues on offense, the Jaguars will go defense in Round 1, since they are more concerned with getting their young offensive talent to play better than to replace them. But they'll address areas as as wide receiver later in the draft, but their defense should only get stronger since they are in a position in which safety is their only major need, allowing them to select best available throughout the draft.

Overall: Much like the Falcons, the Jaguars are a team that needs to play better rather than get better. Their key players on offense like Leftwich and the receivers just have to get better. They've all flashed the potential to be impact players on this level, but haven't done it consistently. Their defense however is still going to make them a factor in most games, and despite concerns in the secondary their front seven is going to be even better with the return of Hayward and Peterson this year.

How they Matchup: They have one of the league's best ground attacks, and they hope their passing game will improve with new guidance by Koetter. Potentially they could be very balanced, but more than likely the passing game won't make huge strides this year. They have 3 big wideouts that can run, which will be difficult for our secondary to match up with. Their front five is athletic and physical, the types that tend to get our front seven the most trouble. Defensively, they can shut down anything we throw at them. Peterson and/or Smith have the speed and range to spy Vick and have a big impact, and their front four will be a very tough matchup for our offensive line.

Posted by Aaron at 9:21 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Because I'm bored out of my mind waiting for the draft, I'm going to do a detailed analysis of each of the Falcons 13 opponents this year, week by week, and basically evaluate the team and how they match up against the Falcons.

Of course, the first game to analyze and evaluate is the season opener vs. the Vikings. This will be a road game. Last season, the Vikings were 3-5 at home, while the Falcons were 4-4 on the road. Those records are relatively meaningless, which should mean the home field advantage won't be too significant.

Offense: The Vikings underachieved last year. Brad Johnson had his worst season as a starter, with his lowest passer rating (72.0) since becoming a starter in 1996 and his worst TD-INT ratio (9:15) in that span as well. The team replaced him with Tarvaris Jackson late in the year, and he was not much better. But he's an athletic passer that gives them a playmaker that could rival Vick to a certain extent. It wouldn't be a stretch to consider him the third best athlete playing the QB position in the league behind Vick and Vince Young. The one bright spot of the Vikings offense last year was Chester Taylor, who is a fast and powerful runner that rushed for over 1200 yards. The Vikings offensive line improved from an abysmal 2005 season, but still was a weakness. But they have the potential to be one of the better units around, and assuming they maintain continuity, they should improve this year as well. The major weakness offensively is the passing game for the Vikings. Unless the light suddenly comes on for Troy Williamson, they really have no major weapons at this position. Their next best option is Bobby Wade, a perennial disappointment in Chicago for years, but played a lot better last year in Tennessee as a reserve. Visanthe Shiancoe and Jim Kleinsasser play tight end, and both have shown they are better blockers than receivers. Although I should note that Shiancoe was a touted prospect coming into the league due to his athleticism, so perhaps all he needs is the opportunity to shine after years sitting behind Jeremy Shockey in New York.

Defense: The reason why the Vikings were respectable last year was their defense. Although DC Mike Tomlin left for Pittsburgh. Their run defense was the best in the league, allowing an uncannily low 2.8 yards per carry, mainly due to the Williamses in the middle. Kevin and Pat Williams are arguably the best pair of tackles in the league, which allowed underachievers like E.J. Henderson, Napoleon Harris and Ben Leber to shine at linebacker. Harris is gone, and last year's No. 1 pick Chad Greenway will step up in his place. The secondary is solid with Antoine Winfield and Darren Sharper. The other cornerback spot is questionable with Cedric Griffin the most likely candidate. The pass rush was weak last year, but a healthy Erasmus James should help. Their pass defense is much better than their 31st ranking, mainly because few teams tried to run against them, meaning they were able to rack up a lot of passing yards (obvious from the 37.4 pass attempts averaged against them per game).

Off-season: In the off-season, the Vikings didn't add too mcuh. They picked up SS Mike Doss, WR Bobby Wade, and TE Visanthe Shiancoe, none of whom are locks to be starters this year and look more like situational options. But injured players from a year ago like James and Greenway will function similarly as pickups. They lost 5 starters from last year so far: QB Johnson, TE Jermaine Wiggins, WR Travis Taylor, LB Harris, and CB Fred Smoot. Clearly, it's the idea of addition by subtraction as all of their departures were expendable veterans.

Draft: Most expect the Vikings to address the wide receiver, defensive line, and secondary early in the draft. However, many mock drafts believe that Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson is a possible candidate for them to take at pick No. 7. If so, it should greatly enhance their ground attack.

Overall: On offense the Vikings have no weapons besides Jackson and Taylor. It'll be interesting to see how effective Jackson's feet are since there is very little he'll be throwing to on the outside. If they get Peterson, then it means that their ground attack could take a lot of pressure off a crappy passing game (sounds like the '06 Falcons). Defensively, the Vikings should be tough, but there might be some dropoff due to Tomlin's departure.

How they Matchup: Best case scenario will mean the '07 Vikings will be similar to the best of the Falcons teams we've seen the past few years. Mobile QB, strong running game, and outstanding defensive play. But luckily for the Falcons we get them in Week 1, so they may still be working out kinks. We should feature enough speed on defense to help contain players like Jackson, Taylor, and Williamson. Offensively, it will be a testament to Petrino if he can establish a ground game against them. This is a much closer matchup than many would initially think, just because the Vikings play such tough defense. But getting the passing game going in this game could be a key to success.

Key Individual Matchups:
John Abraham & Rod Coleman vs. Bryant McKinnie & Steve Hutchinson - Coleman lines up against the right guard, and I imagine for this game the Falcons will try to maximize the amount of instances that occurs since Hutchinson is very good. A healthy Abraham can potentially dominate McKinnie, but they still are a very formidable left side.

Demorrio Williams vs. Tarvaris Jackson - I'd imagine that Williams is the guy that would likely be used most often to spy Jackson, due to his speed. Demo definitely has the speed to shadow Jackson, just does he have the discipline at this point?

Joe Horn vs. Cedric Griffin - I suspect Griffin will be the opening day starter at RCB, which means he'll likely find himself matching up against Joe Horn. The wily veteran vs. the promising upstart.

Kynan Forney vs. Kevin Williams - Williams is probably the best pass-rushing DT in the league, and Forney is going to have his hands full.

Posted by Aaron at 11:19 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

According to a statistic I saw on Pro-Football-Reference.com last summer, which I updated for this year, it seems that there's a 65% chance that Bobby Petrino will be able to improve upon the Falcons 7-9 record this year. Not overwhelming odds, but decent. Interestingly enough, based off that statistic, the Falcons would have a 63.5% chance of improving had they kept Mora. But that's a subject I don't want to get into.

I don't know what sort of expectations to have for this season. On one hand, I could see the Falcons winning 10 or 11 games, assuming Vick takes to Petrino's offense well, and Zimmer improves the play and consistency of the defense. But on the other hand, I could see this as a "rebuilding" year in which the coaches and players struggle to get on the same page at times, which means we could only win 6 or 7 games, finishing with roughly the same record.

But I'm leaning towards the former. I think the Falcons will be in playoff contention. I think we have as good a chance as anybody to win the division this year. We'll have to see what we get in the draft and see how the schedule is exactly ordered before I can really get into some firm predictions, but I like our chances.

There are no pushover opponents on our schedule. Even if we enter a week playing a 1-8 Houston Texans team, recent history shows us that is no guaranteed win for us (see 2005 Packers game). Division games are always tough, and we'll be playing the AFC South and NFC West, two divisions that will be tough as well. We'll be playing several potential lame duck coaches including Coughlin, Del Rio, Fox, and Gruden, which is never a good circumstance, since it often means those teams will be very good or very bad.

But it'll be interesting to see what Petrino and his offense are capable of. I know most are expecting Vick to have a breakout year, and although I expect improvement, I'm not sure if it'll be a breakout year. I've been expecting that breakout year for the past 4 seasons, and it really hasn't come yet. Also I wonder how reliable the running game will be. Sure, Petrino is talking about committing to a power-oriented rushing attack, but plenty of coaches talk really big about running the ball and controlling the clock in the off-season, but when the season starts that evaporates. Often because the team is so bad defensively, they are forced to pass all the time. I don't expect that to happen to the Falcons, but you never know. Injuries can throw wrinkles into your entire season outlook.

The schedule is expected to come out next week, and the draft is in 3 weeks, so of course a month of now I may have a completely new outlook. But I'm looking forward to this season, and I hoping I have something to cheer about in January as opposed to the past two seasons.

Posted by Aaron at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post