FalcBlog

So now it's time to talk about receivers. I could be very negative here, but I think I'm going to practice selective memory when it comes to thinking about our receiving corps performance in 2006.

No doubt the Falcons had one of the worst groups of receivers in the league last year. One might argue they were the worst, which would be a hard argument for me to rebuke since after all we were the 32nd ranked passing offense.

But there were moments from this group, and the hope is that Paul Petrino and Hue Jackson can work their magic on these guys in 2007.

Lelie is a free agent, and I don't expect him back. I never did, even when we originally made the trade, one that I will say I never agreed with. He was a stopgap that didn't pay his dividends. Sure, this team could use Lelie this year, but why pay the money he's likely to garner on the open market for a guy that has no guarantee of being higher than fourth on the depth chart?

We have Finneran returning, and with White and Jenkins will form the corps of our receivers. No one is sure whether Finneran will be his old self, but even if he's only halfway back, he'll still be effective. The big key will be if White and/or Jenkins can take their game to the next level. They flashed big play potential, and Jenkins was and is clearly our best receiver. Their hands are suspect, which I believe are due to poor mental concentration as opposed to just having bad hands. Hopefully the coaches can help fix that.

Since we'll be running Petrino's offense, we will likely be using a lot of four and five receiver sets. That could mean a lot of PT for Adam Jennings. He's a guy I'm not that impressed with, but considering that smaller quick WRs like Deion Branch and Arnold Jackson had the greatest success at Louisville under Petrino, makes me believe there is a sliver of hope.

If need be the Falcons can use a middle round pick on a receiver. A player I personally like is Ohio State's Anthony Gonzalez, who I liken to a Ricky Proehl with his ability in the slot. But it's not a necessary move. The Falcons could simply go out and sign some cheap speed in free agency. Someone like Andre' Davis, Quincy Morgan, or Shaun McDonald would do fine.

I don't expect Jenkins or White to suddenly blossom into Pro Bowl receivers in this new offense. But I do expect some improvement. Maybe one or both will manage to break the 50-catch mark this season, something neither has done yet in their NFL careers.

As for tight end, Crumpler isn't going anywhere, and should do fine in Petrino's offense. The question at this position is who is going to be the second tight end. Eric Beverly has filled that role the past three years, and is a solid blocker, but do the Falcons want a solid blocker that can actually catch? Perhaps. If that's the case then there is always of blockers available each year in free agency. The Falcons could save some money by cutting Beverly and then picking up another veteran at a miminum salary.

Posted by Aaron at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Okay, now I'm moving onto the running backs. McKay has already gone on record and said that the Falcons will bring Warrick Dunn back. They said this a few years ago, and followed up on their word, so there's little reason to doubt McKay this time around.

But I will say this, I think that if the Falcons were to snag a top runner in the first two rounds of the draft, such as an Adrian Peterson or Michael Bush, you might see Warrick get the "Jamal Anderson treatment." Meaning, that when the Falcons signed Dunn originally back in '02, they planned on bringing back Jamal as well to complement him. Things changed when they drafted T.J. Duckett, and Jamal was thus released a few months later in June.

And on the subject of rookie running backs, that is what I'm most hopeful the Falcons will do in early in the draft. I like Norwood, but I'm not sure he can be a No. 1 running back in any non-Alex Gibbs-led blocking system. In his first year, he proved that he wasn't very durable, and I have no reason to believe that with his chicken legs, he'll be anymore if given the ball more in 2007. There was only 1 game all season long that Norwood had more than 10 carries. He deserves more playing time, but I don't think he's going to get it unless his pass blocking improves.

But I do like the duo of Dunn and Norwood coming back. Their speed and hands should make them effective weapons both out of the backfield, and also possibly lining up in the slot at wide receiver. Perhaps Bobby Petrino has heard of something that was completely foreign to Greg Knapp, and it's called a screen pass.

But as I said, I really hope the Falcons get a top notch runner this coming April. I firmly believe that the best medicine for Michael Vick and the ho-hum Falcon offense is to have another player in the backfield that can be a consistent weapon, thus taking pressure off Vick to have to play at a high level every week, a feat I just don't think will occur with him.

In my eyes, Adrian Peterson is perfect. But Marshawn Lynch, the consensus #2 running back, is not far behind. I'm sure people are seeing obvious links between Michael Bush and Atlanta, and Bush has already said in an interview that he would love to play for the Falcons, I'm just not sure the Falcons will be in a position to draft him.

Okay, moving on to the fullback position. I'm not sure what to do with Justin Griffith. I really like Griffith, because he's a jack of all trades player, that blocks, runs, and catches the ball well. But if the Falcons retain both Dunn and Norwood, and draft a promising rookie, he'll be buried on the depth chart. Not to mention that Petrino's offense likes to spread the field out, so Griffith's role as a lead blocker will be marginalized. And despite flashing potential as a runner, Griffith simply fumbles way too much to be a serious consideration to share the load with Dunn & Norwood next year. In 168 career touches, Griffith has fumbled four times. Comparatively, Dunn touched the ball 310 times and fumbled only once.

I'm not sure if Fred McCary will be back. I think the Falcons should try to have one blocking back on the roster for obvious short-yardage and goalline situation. McCrary fits the bill, but the team might be interested in developing someone like Corey McIntyre. I'm hopeful the Saints pass on re-signing Kevin Dudley for next year, because I'd like to see him get a real chance to compete.

Marlion Jackson was not re-signed, and I don't think he'll be missed.

Posted by Aaron at 1:51 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

So now that Vick has been exonerated, I guess it becomes a non issue. And for those that think those that have been critical of Vick should apologize, I don't agree. Exoneration does not necessarily indicate innocence, but more than likely in this case indicates the Dade County police and District Attorney's offense lacking desire to make an arrest and/or press charges.

Not to mention my issues with Vick started well before this incident. He can apologize to me with his play on the field, as Mark Bradley so eloquently states.

But anyway, it's time to move on. Vick isn't going anywhere anytime soon. We all know that. Even though I lack the confidence in Vick for him to achieve what Bradley desires, I understand that he has the ability to do so and will have the opportunity at least in 2007.

Now I'd like to move on to a point where I do my own evaluation of the Falcons of 2006, and what should happen or I'd like to happen in 2007. And let's start with the quarterback position...

Well the biggest concern the Falcons must face this off-season will be what to do with Matt Schaub. One assumes that because the Falcons have a new coach in Bobby Petrino, it means that both Vick and Schaub will return in 2007, because he will want a chance to fully evaluate both players.

There is a chance the Falcons could trade Schaub, but only if a team offered a No. 1 pick. In my eyes, that is extremely doubtful, considering that Schaub is no better than the fourth best available passer this off-season behind rookies JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, and Byron Leftwich, if the Jaguars do as many believe they will, and try to move him.

So although if I was the Falcons GM, I'd be willing to move Schaub for a 2nd round pick, I know the real Falcons GM will not agree.

One option at potentially replacing Schaub would be to sign Mark Brunell. But since Brunell is coming off shoulder surgery, such a move makes less sense. Brunell played under Petrino and Musgrave during his Jacksonville career, so he knows our coaching staff pretty well. The shoulder injury that Brunell suffered is the same that Drew Brees had last off-season. But unlike Brees, Brunell is not in the prime of his playing career (and hasn't been since Petrino was in Jacksonville), so I wouldn't expect him to come back from the injury as well as Brees did in 2006.

So all this means that the Falcons will likely have the same three quarterbacks in 2007 as they did in 2006. We'll probably add a fourth passer at some point this off-season to come in and push D.J. Shockley for the third spot.

Posted by Aaron at 9:20 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I wrote an entry for this blog back in December, that I was saving to post until the end of the regular season. It was one that was similar to the Jeff Schultz column that was written on Thursday.

I wrote this entry following the Falcons win over the Bucs. I was saving it for the end of the year, to be fair since at the point when it was written, the Falcons playoff hopes were very much alive. And despite the poor finish, instead of posting it, I decided to just sit on it. But now with all the "piling on" that is occurring in the media and among the fan base, I figured why not join in? So here it is...

I have ceased being a Michael Vick fan. Up until now, I considered him my favorite Falcon player. The fantasy is over for me. This coming from a guy that grew up in Newport News, that saw Michael Vick play in high school, that saw him almost single-handedly will his team to a national title at Tech, that was gleeful on the verge of tears upon discovery of the news that the Falcons had swapped first round picks with the Chargers in 2001, and that all psyched about the Falcons going to the Super Bowl when the Falcons-Eagles game kicked off two years ago.

Well I'm saying it's over. I recall in the week leading up to the Packers debacle in 2005, talking smack on a Packers' fan site, saying things like the majority of Packers fans were still delusional if they still believed Brett Favre was "Brett Favre." I cited a statistic that indicated since 2002, that in games that were resolved by 8 points or less in which they started and finished, Michael Vick was 13-1 while Favre was 6-12. Indicating to me that the former mojo that Favre had in close games, was now embodied in Vick. Well of course, the Falcons lost that Packer game by 8 points. And since citing that statistic, Vick is 2-3 in such games. I realize not totally convincing evidence, but enough for me to come to the conclusion that I have become exactly what I chastised those Packer fans for being: delusional.

When did I come to this conclusion? It was after the Falcons lost to the Browns. Two weeks prior, Vick had perhaps the best game of his career, but in the subsequent pair of games, had been average by the most optimistic of standards, and was shown up in his own house by none other than Charlie Frye. At that point it hit me that Vick would never be a consistently good quarterback. It hit me that he would never live up to the expectations of his lofty contract. It hit me that he was just as headache-inducing as his lesser cousin.

So you ask what am I to do? Am I going to start rooting against Vick? No. Am I going to become a Matt Schaub enthusiast? No. I'll simply do nothing more than continue to support the Falcons with a sliver of hope that I'm wrong. In the time being, I'll just be waiting for the Falcons organization and front office brass to get on the same page as I am and decide to go in a different direction. It's really nothing new for me, as I was in a similar mindset over the last three years of Dan Reeves tenure in Atlanta. My hope however is that unlike Taylor Smith, Arthur Blank is smarter than I think he is, and will overlook things like jersey sales and marketing gimmicks, and simply do what is best for this football team and organization and get rid of Michael Vick.

Posted by Aaron at 12:25 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Vick's recent run-in with the law in Miami is an excellent display of the lack of maturity and leadership he seems to display on the field, that is now being transported off the field.

But truthfully, this would be an excellent opportunity for me to beat my chest about how the team should get rid of Vick, and this is one symptom of the larger problem that involves him with the Falcons. But I'm not going to do that.

My hope is that after this all blows over, he'll have heard all the whispers (or shouts) that he is on the outs in Atlanta, and it'll inspire him to play that much harder this upcoming season, and perhaps maybe I'll be back on the Vick bandwagon.

A few years from now, we'll probably look back on this "incident" and say either it came at no worser time or no better time. It might the event that set Vick's career in overdrive, or another occasion of the perpetual disappointment that has been Michael Vick's NFL career.

Posted by Aaron at 12:22 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I'm just as shocked as many of you are that the Falcons hired Bobby Petrino. It was a candidate out of left field, and it seems rather obvious at this point that at some point in the past month the Falcons had identified him as their lone target, and simply went through the motions with all these interviews. The Fritz Pollard Alliance won't be happy, but the Falcons did obey the rules.

I know there are many out there that hate the idea of a college coach taking over the Falcons job, especially when all this Saban stuff hasn't even settled. But Petrino is one of the few out there that probably could work in the NFL. We'll finally get to see if the spread offense as it has been recently "perfected" on the collegiate level, will work in the NFL. And I really have no qualms whatsoever with Atlanta being the experiment where it takes place.

Although the stats seem to state otherwise, I really think that the only offense where Michael Vick really has a chance to be a proverbial "round peg" is in the spread offense. And don't for a second believe that the spread offense is a re-hashing of the Run N' Shoot. Yes, the spread does have its roots in that offense, but it's evolved from it's Glanville-esque beginnings. Petrino employs a power running game at Louisville, as evidenced by monster backs Michael Bush and Eric Shelton handling the loads under him. So I think you might see the Falcons target a big back this off-season to team with Dunn and/or Norwood, which might be Bush himself via the draft.

Now that Petrino is the man, the next big question is who will be on the staff. I suspect Petrino himself will be the play-caller here in Atlanta, so whomever his offensive coordinator is (currently his younger brother Paul at Louisville) will be nominal. But it will be interesting to see if he transports his Louisville staff to the pros, or if he dips back into his older pro connections. My hope for defensive coordinator would be for him to exploit one old pro connection and hire Dom Capers, currently contemplated his future with the Dolphins. In the six years that Capers has simply coordinated a defense and not been head coach, his units have produced a Top 8 scoring defense five times and a Top 5 total defense four times. And the two non-Top 5 total defenses ranked 9th and 12th. Pretty impressive. And of course he's going to have to filter through which Falcon assistants he wants to retain. DeCamillis's departure would be the only one I'd lament. We know that Alex Gibbs isn't coming back, but if there's a positive to that it means the Falcons are thankfully free to use early draft picks on offensive linemen.

So I've said all this much, but haven't really commented on whether I like the hire. Well, I do. I would have been more excited if the Falcons had hired Whisenhunt or Cameron, but I definitely like Petrino more than I would Rivera or Singletary. I'm glad Blank & McKay stuck with an offensive coach. And let's face it, they hired Petrino to "fix" Vick. So although there are rumors that the Falcons aren't married to Vick over the long-term, they definitely are for the short-term, and this hire clearly shows that. Petrino has a strong QB background, something that only one other candidate (Cameron) had. As I said earlier, I think the spread attack is the only offense that Vick's unique skills project well in. The West Coast was not as bad a fit as people made it out to be, but it was far from a good one. This new offense should give Vick the space he needs to throw and run more effectively. Now we just have to get the pieces around him to make it work. Why couldn't Deion Branch be on the trading block this off-season?!

Posted by Aaron at 2:21 AM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

If the coaching search in 2004 is used as a blueprint for the one in 2007, then it probably means by the end of next week we shall see a second round of interviews being granted to Blank & McKay's finalists. I suspect we may see the Falcons interview a few more candidates such as Norm Chow, Mike Tomlin, Mike Sherman, Russ Grimm, and/or Jim Caldwell sometime next week, but if you ask me all are longshots anyway. Frankly, I think it will come down to quartet that has been scheduled to interview thus far: Ken Whisenhunt, Ron Rivera, Malcolm "Cam" Cameron, and Mike Singletary.

I think Rivera and Cameron are at a loss due to the fact their teams are in the playoffs, and thus will not be able to interview a second time until their respective teams are ousted from the postseason. Whisenhunt at this point seems unlikely due to the "retirement/resignation" of Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh. I'd assume he's a (or the) frontrunner there. That leaves only Mr. Singletary, who at this juncture I would predict is the most likely to become the next Falcons head coach.

Is that a good hire? You be the judge. I don't have a problem with hiring Singletary per se. I'd be wary of his lack of experience. But almost every human being that knows a bit about football greatly respects him. And from all indications, all his players respect him as a coach, but the question is how much of that is carry-over from his playing days? He's only coached 4 years, which would make him probably the fastest person in NFL history to ascend to head coaching. The 49ers' defenses the past two years have been pretty bad on paper, but their run defenses have been relatively solid, and their linebackers have been their strength the past few years, which is the area where Singletary logs the most time.

Frankly, the hiring of any coach is made or broken by who they assign as their coordinators. Mora hired Knapp, see where it landed him. Shell with Walsh. While Schottenheimer hired Cameron and Fisher's hiring of Chow probably have saved or prolonged their jobs. So regardless of who is the head coach for the Falcons in 2007, I'm just as curious (and more curious in a few cases) of who the offensive and defensive coordinators will be. The issue with Singletary is that because of his limited tenure in the league, his number of coaching connections are pretty small. So would he purge the Ravens or 49ers coaching staff for assistants. Would he be more likely to keep current Falcons assistants? Would he dip back into his old Bears playing days and hire his former coaches or teammates? These are unanswered questions, but I have a gut feeling that within a week or two they will be answered.

Posted by Aaron at 1:49 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Well, this game pretty much summed it all up in my opinion. Sure, Vick made a huge error early on but the team recovered and did so to the point of having the lead. Then Dallas began beating us up physically and picking on Allen Rossum (not that I blame them). Very frustrating loss.

Here's what I saw:

Offense:

Running game: Dunn (18/56), Vick (8/56), Griffith (1/15). 5 of Dunn's carries went for 4 yards or more (1 close to the half and the rest towards the end of the game). Not a good day at all running the ball at all except for Vick and that was hit and miss as well. I think we really missed Norwood especially with Dunn still hurting from the previous week.

Breakdown of passes:

Vick: 16/24, 237 yards, 4 TD/1 INT. Breakdown of incompletions are: 5 bad throws, 3 pass defended. The bad throws number was right on target with the 25% goal and although the INT was returned for a TD, was more than overcome by the 4 TD's.

Schaub: 3/5, 33 yards, 0 TD/ 1 INT. Breakdown of incompletions are: 2 bad passes. Not really enough to make any sort of analysis on.

Drops (0): FINALLY!!!

Sack responsibility (4): The first sack was on Gandy who allowed Ware to pressure Vick into Hatcher. The second is on McClure who allowed pressure up the middle, chipped the guy who rolled off and kept Vick from running out of pressure. The third was a botched running attempt for -2 yards. The final sack was a pitch to Vick (halfback option) and really shouldn't count as a sack but more a negative rushing attempt.

Pass blocking: The best word I could use is "adequate". 3 hurries and 2 "real" sacks. Okay at times but still too much pressure.

YTD Sacks (39):

Michael Vick 17 (8 rushing attempts that went for negative yards)
Matt Lehr 2.5
Kynan Forney 2.0
Eric Beverly 1
Wayne Gandy 6.0
Justin Griffith 1.0
Warrick Dunn 3.0
Alge Crumpler 1.0
Todd Weiner 1.0
Tyson Clabo 1.5
P.J. Alexander 1.0
Todd McClure 1.0
"Scheme/No line adjustment" 1.0

Note: Vick sacks are those that he has at least 3 seconds and either chose to try to scramble or stayed in the pocket when the better decision would be to throw it away. Also includes those rushing attempts that go for 0 or negative yardage that for some reason are counted as a sack.


Defense:

Run defense: When Jones was running it was outstanding. When Barber was in, we missed tackles, got pushed around and overpursued to the tune of losing the game over 6 yards per carry.

Pass Defense: DHall got burned for a 51 yarder by TO (no thanks to Crocker on the safety help) and had TO make a great play for another TD, other than that kept him in check for 3 catches and 11 yards. Rossum and the LB's gave up the rest.

3 sacks: Coleman got two and Demorrio Williams got the final one.

Special Teams:

Rossum had 5 kickoff returns for: 30 (to the 33), 19 (to the 21), 18 (to the 24), 44 (to the 45), 19 (to the 23). 2 great returns and 3 mediocre ones. A decent day.

Jennings had 2 kickoff returns for: 16 (to the 20), 12 (to the 16). Not good.

Rossum also had 1 punt returns: 3 yards. Horrible!

Koenen had 4 punts. 1: 38 yards, out of bounds at the 34 of DAL. 2: 53 yards to the DAL 36, no return. 3: 42 yards, to the 34 DAL, no return. 4: 39 yards, to the 20, no return. The last two were kicked inside the 20 while the first two were very average. 1 great one and the rest were okay.

Kickoffs: Koenen had 5 kickoffs: 1: to the 7, returned to the 23. 2: to the 2, returned to the 16, fumbled and recovered for -1. 3: to the 2, returned to the 24. 4: to the endzone, touchback. 5: to the 8, returned to the 45. 2 really good, 2 okay and 1 poor job of coverage. Good overall.

Field Goals: None.

Special Teams leading tackler: Carrington, D. Williams (1 fumble forced), J. Williams, Leake and Reese (huge hit).

Things that really need improvement:

1. Defensive consistency and replace Rossum.
2. "Closing the deal" in the second half.
3. Continue improvement on drops.

Offensive MVP: Michael Vick

Defensive MVP: Rod Coleman (4 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 QB hurries and 1 pass defensed)
Special Teams MVP: Michael Koenen

Goat of the Week: Run defense against Marion Barber.
Let me know your thoughts and questions otherwise:

Next up: VS Carolina, December 24!

Posted by Cappy at 7:05 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Many have said that Greg Knapp did not at all or did not do enough to adjust his offense around Vick. Well, in doing a bit of research, I've discovered that the stats paint a different picture.

ESPN.com has a thorough breakdown of Vick's statistics based on formations. They break it down into 4 basic backfield formations: Shotgun, Split back, I-formation, and Lone setback. They also break it down by the number of receivers on the field: one or less, two, three, and four or more.

I discovered particularly in reference from 2005 to 2006, Knapp did do quite a bit to adjust his scheming. In 2005, Vick was at his most proficient as a passer throwing out of the I-formation and shotgun. He had a 97.1 and 83.5 rating, respectively, in those formations. So what does Knapp do for 2006? He essentially doubles the number of times he calls those plays. In 2005, a total of 26% of Vick's passes came from the shotgun, and 17% from the I-formation. In 2006, 50% of Vick's passes were in the shotgun, and 35% in I-formation. Well how did Vick respond? Well, he still remained relatively solid in I-formation, having a passer rating of 85.4. But in shotgun, his rating dipped to 68.2 in 2006.

Also, one notices that the number of times the Falcons utilized 4-5 WRs in 2006 increased dramatically as opposed to the previous year. Why? Most likely due to the fact that Vick's passer rating in those situations went from 29.3 in 2004 to 72.5 in 2005. Thus, the team hoped for a similar increase in production in 2006, by increasing the nymber of passes from that situation from 10% in 2005 to 18% in 2006. Did it work? No, because Vick's rating slipped back down to a paltry 45.7.

Also, you look at Vick's work from the split back position. In 2004 and 2005, 20-24% of Vick's passes came from that formation, but he had ratings of 66.3 and 57.1, respectively. Well, in 2006, Knapp virtually removed throwing from that set out of the playbook, as it represented only 7% of the pass attempts. Vick's passer rating by the way wound up being 25.6 in those situations this past year.

This of course does not by any means "prove" that Knapp did a good job molding his offense around Vick. I personally believe that greater steps should have been taken, and also the stats don't tell the whole truth. After all, if Vick was so good at passing in I-formation in 2004 and 2005 based on the stats, why then was this not utilized even to a greater degree in 2006 than it was?

But these stats show me something else as well, which is Vick's inconsistency, which in my eyes helped further Knapp's failures. His seesaw production, particularly with the shotgun formation, illustrate some of the limitations that any offensive coordinator would have difficulty overcoming when designing an offense around Vick.

If the statistics can be considered reliable, it shows Vick's strengths. He was most consistently good passing in I-back formation, and with 0-1 receivers on the field. Which means for the next offensive coordinator, an offense built around twin tight ends and a more physical rushing attack may be the best medicine for the Atlanta Falcons and Vick's woes. Essentially, the Falcons might have to become the Dallas Cowboys.

Posted by Aaron at 4:40 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Wow, looking back at my predictions last year, I really did a crappy job. Makes me less willing to prognosticate again this year. But I said less willing, not unwilling.

I made 10 basic predictions in late February, and here's how they turned out:

1. This prediction was essentially 1, but had 2 parts. The first said the Falcons would not trade Matt Schaub. That was correct. The second was if they had, it would only be to the Detroit Lions.
   
2. Bryan Scott would regain his starting position. Boy, was I wrong. The Falcons shipped him away to New Orleans where he totaled ZERO starts even in their secondary.
   
3. Rich McKay would surprise us with the first pick. Well, technically I could say I got it right, since rather than drafting someone, we decided to trade it to the New York Jets for John Abraham. I'd say a surprise, but I won't take credit for it since I was implying it was going to be a draft pick.
   
4. T.J. Duckett would be back in Atlanta. Wrong again, although T.J. lasted a lot longer than Bryan Scott did. And I was right to the point that the market was very poor for Duckett, and took an injury to both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts before a team was willing to deal for him.
   
5. I predicted which free agents would and would not return. I said Carpenter, Finneran, Peterson, Shaffer, and Dez White would be gone. I was technically right since Finneran, the lone one re-signed, did not suit up in '06. Among the ones I said would return, only one did: Fred McCrary. The others: Ronnie Heard, Kevin McCadam, and Barry Stokes did not, and I inaccurately predicted that nobody would want them (McCadam and Stokes both signed with other teams).
   
6. I predicted an early or late bye. I was correct, as we had one in Week 5.
   
7. I predicted Brooking, Hall, Kerney, and Vick would be our Pro Bowlers. I was right on Hall, but left off Crumpler. At the time, I figured Jason Witten, Jeremy Shockey, and Chris Cooley seemed likelier candidates. Shockey did make it.
   
8. I predicted a Top 10 finish for our defense this past season. Well, we wound up 22nd in total defense (yards) and 16th in scoring defense (points). Wrong again.
   
9. I predicted a second place finish in the NFC South.
   
10. I predicted the Falcons would dominate the Saints in '06 (who at the time I thought would draft Vince Young). That may have been the most blatantly false prediction I made them, as the Saints in term dominated us.

So I feel I can only take credit for 3 of these predictions. And they were the 3 most lukewarm and conservative ones. Saying the Falcons wouldn't trade Schaub is not going out on a limb at all, because trades are rare in the NFL. The Falcons being in part of 4 last off-season was outrageous by normal standards. Preciting a surprise first round pick is nothing insightful either since that's what draws people to the draft in the first place, the intrigue and mystery. And the accurate prediction of an early bye is not too complex considering the law of averages indicates getting a midseason bye three years in a role is unlucky based on the NFL's scheduling process.

I could try to make some predictions here and now, but I'll just give you my Super Bowl prediction: Ravens vs. Saints. Ravens win.

Posted by Aaron at 11:50 PM | Permalink | Comments | links to this post